The European Commission's new leadership, under President Ursula von der Leyen's second term, is shifting toward a more assertive stance on China, amid internal political shifts and overlapping bureaucratic roles. Without a coherent ‘U.S.-China policy,’ Europe risks deepening internal divisions and weakening its ability to assert strategic autonomy between the U.S. and China.

The recent snap elections in France have complicated the country's foreign policy, particularly towards China. With the rise of both the far-right National Rally and the left-wing New Popular Front, France's stance on China is increasingly uncertain, as diverging views within these factions challenge President Macron's strategic autonomy and complicate Sino-French relations at a critical juncture.

Britain’s recent change in leadership will test its ability to navigate its relationship with a powerful China - both an important trading partner and formidable foe on the global stage. As one of the West’s preeminent powers, the UK must move with sound strategy to achieve its goals.

The transformations spurred by the election are evolutionary rather than revolutionary. This year’s contest was less dramatic than earlier ones and the outcomes were more incremental.

On June 12, the European Union announced new provisional levies on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), with the tariff level to be based on estimates of how much state support an EV exporter receives. The new tariffs follow from a months-long investigation into China’s use of financial subsidies, and they will be imposed on top of the 10% tariff that the EU already has in place. They are “provisional” because they might be revised downward if Chinese producers can offer evidence that the support they receive is less than estimated. Separately, if the EU can reach an agreement with China to reduce the volume of Chinese EV exports to Europe, the new tariffs may not be implemented.

The two countries seek to show their commitment to advancing European sovereignty. Unfortunately, the United States will not allow it, as it believes greater autonomy for Europe would diminish NATO’s influence across the continent.

The 2024 EU’s parliamentary elections warrant deeper scrutiny, highlighting the interplay of national issues and geopolitical factors. The outcome mirrors local political landscapes, suggesting potential changes in EU leadership and policies. The EU’s geopolitical impact remains limited while presenting some challenges for EU-China cooperation and beyond.

Facing a choice of autonomy or continued dependence on the United States, some factions on the continent seek to avoid that stark choice. In pursuit of a European pillar within NATO, the EU appears to be navigating a middle path.

For a robust Sino-European partnership, Beijing must recognize European interests, particularly the EU's strategic autonomy and security concerns, and address economic competition while fostering collaborative ventures to repair and enhance bilateral relations.

As China and Europe prepare to celebrate their 50th anniversary of diplomacy, relations are at a critical moment. President Xi’s visits enhance the symbiosis between the parties and will add precious momentum to the healthy development of East-West relations.