China’s latest diplomatic win, an expansive agreement with France, goes a long way in confirming China’s dream of becoming a global hegemon. Yet with conflict raging in Europe to this day, the end of the road is nowhere near.

The Butterfly Effect has taken flight. China’s diplomatic accomplishment in reconciling Saudi Arabia and Iran could have far-reaching consequences, with Ukraine’s future caught in its wake. The unexpected nature of this historic move means that its ramifications are rapidly gaining momentum and could unleash a tidal wave of global proportions, particularly in Europe.

French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen clearly signaled that trade, not ideology, will continue to anchor China-EU relations. Even so, the Russia-Ukraine conflict could complicate matters if not resolved.

The EU and U.S. recently announced a deal providing America favorable treatment to European critical materials. The agreement will deepen cooperation and decrease their dependency on China, but potential consequences remain uncertain. In the future, the EU should adopt a more ambitious stance to strengthen their position as a self-reliant and influential global geopolitical force, as they navigate the delicate balance between Beijing and Washington.

China has provided some new thinking and inspiration for solving the international security puzzle. The answer involves major countries breaking through the constraints of outdated Western security theories and charting a course that is comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable.

As the war in Ukraine marks its one year anniversary, and with the recent announcement of China’s call for a ceasefire and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, it’s imperative to analyze history and to consider further pathways to peace. Ultimately, China is best positioned to lead the way to the end of the war, and them doing so would be for the betterment of the world.

It is the mission of the think tank to stay on high alert against potential risks and explore possible solutions to challenges. The international system is currently undergoing the most dramatic changes since the end of the Cold War. The peaceful and open international environment, which has been taken for granted over the last four decades, is now overshadowed by formidable challenges. In this context, it is the think tank’s responsibility to explore and identify external security risks that might pose threats to China in the months and years ahead.

The notion of decoupling has lost steam across Europe, though some countries are still looking to reduce their dependence on China. How Europe chooses to balance cooperation with competition will be the key as the two sides cooperate in areas of shared interest.

As one of America’s key European allies, Germany is exploring its own version of strategic autonomy — a low-profile and pragmatic version — not only for itself but also on behalf of Europe. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s recent trip to China was a notable touchstone.

Scholz’s visit helps set the narrative straight. China and Europe should set their own agenda, without the heavy hand of a third party. They should be guided by their hopes for the future, not their fears.