With the Global South rising, Europe’s renewed emphasis on strategic independence from the United States could partially offset its relative decline in hard power and accelerate global multi-polarity.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the residence of the U.S. ambassador in Paris, France, on February 11, 2025. (Photo: Reuters)
In 2003, a sharp divide between the United States and Europe over the Iraq war led American political theorist Robert Kagan to describe the transatlantic gap in policy and power as “Americans are from Mars and Europeans are from Venus.” Recently, U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s vehement criticism of Europe at the Munich Security Conference, coupled with transatlantic policy divergences over Ukraine, exposed profound ideological rifts to an unprecedented degree. This may signal that the Western bloc, which has been a pivotal force in international affairs for decades, is entering a period of fragmentation.
Over the past decades, transatlantic disagreements became visible intermittently, with frequent policy misalignments on critical global issues. While the recent disputes do not yet indicate a rupture, several deep-seated factors are significantly eroding the parties’ cohesion in ideology and values.
First, prolonged economic imbalances and divergent priorities drive wedges. As leading developed economies, the U.S. and Europe have charted markedly different paths since the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, the Eurozone’s GDP ($14.2 trillion) nearly matched that of the U.S. ($14.8 trillion). By 2023, however, the size of the U.S. economy had grown to $26.9 trillion, nearly 1.8 times the Eurozone’s $15 trillion. The asymmetry has amplified disparities in philosophies of governance. On European security issues, such as the Ukraine crisis, the Trump administration’s “position of strength” and transactional “America first” approach have marginalized Europe’s role in substantive negotiations.
Regarding frontier technologies, such as artificial intelligence, U.S. policies prioritize innovation over regulation while Europe has spearheaded the world’s first comprehensive AI legislation. Notably, the French proposal at the recent AI Action Summit for a statement on “inclusive and sustainable artificial intelligence for people and the planet” failed to secure a U.S. endorsement.
Second, America’s radical turn to the right exacerbates transatlantic ideological divides. Vance’s statement that Europe’s greatest threat is “from within” stunned European observers. As noted by David Gosset, founder of the China-Europe-America Global Initiative, such rhetoric not only touches a raw nerve in Europe but also reveals a growing dismissiveness by the U.S. of Europe’s historical and cultural values.
Fundamentally, America’s new political momentum is corroding the shared values that once bound the transatlantic alliance. The “red wave” in U.S. politics signals a new so-called conservative cycle that is starkly at odds with Europe’s prevailing liberal and postmodern ethos. Senior Trump administration officials have expressed sympathy with European right-wing movements and criticized the continent’s approach to migration and free speech, heightening mainstream European anxieties. Over time, these ideological differences — potentially deepening into outright antagonism — could gradually undermine the alliance’s foundational unity and dilute perceptions of collective threats.
The potential schism within the West carries profound implications for the international order. Regarding major power relations, nations will reassess transatlantic cohesion and resilience, which will prompt fresh realignments. Growing fissures between the U.S. and Europe could also unsettle other states in the Western bloc, such Canada, Australia, Japan and South Korea, leading to policy recalibrations. Such shifts will manifest not only in approaches to flashpoints such as Ukraine and Gaza but also in global governance domains — for example, climate action and AI regulation.
As transatlantic policy gaps become increasingly visible, novel issue-based coalitions may emerge among major powers. Paradoxically, amid Washington’s growing unpredictability in global governance, such flexible partnerships could actually enhance coordinated international responses to shared challenges.
Meanwhile, the West’s fragmentation may accelerate the multi-polarization process. Historically, Europe championed multi-polarity. Now, as EU states grow wary of overreliance on the U.S., calls for “strategic autonomy” and multilateralism have resurfaced.
Against the backdrop of a rising Global South, Europe’s renewed emphasis on strategic independence could partially offset its relative decline in hard power and accelerate multi-polarity. A sustained and periodically reinvigorated multi-polarization process will be an effective counterbalance against hegemonic pursuits.
