The Philippines continues to be a magnet for tension in the Indo-Pacific due to its advantageous maritime geography and close relationship to the United States. Could this lead to a Cuban missile crisis for the 21st Century?

The Philippines sits at the crossroads of the Pacific and Southeast Asia, navigating its historical ties to the U.S. and proximity to China with extreme care and diplomatic acumen. As China seeks to grow its power this decade, the Philippines will surely play a major role in how things unfold.

China wields the largest naval capacity in Asia, and has shown no qualms about deploying it to contest waters in its vicinity. The Philippines sitting so near China have faced the brunt of China’s aggressive actions, and must navigate the situation with great strategic acumen.

The Philippines latest round of talks with the U.S. seems to give the impression of a strong shift toward alignment with American interests, but closer examination reveals a pragmatic approach by Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to playing the U.S. against overtures from neighboring China.

The Philippines, ever aware of its strategic importance in Asia’s waters, is making moves to strengthen its positions in economy and defense, the latter area being of utmost importance to Manila when looking at the flurry of activity Manila has taken in recent months.

The Philippines is at a crucial juncture right now, as the U.S. and China jockey for influence over the strategic waters surrounding the nation. Under new leadership favoring the West, the Philippines risks entangling itself in an escalating struggle between the two global powers.

Through a campaign to smear China, the Marcos government has managed to alienate itself from other countries in Southeast Asia. Working hand in glove with the United States, it will only find itself increasingly isolated from other ASEAN member states.

The polemics over a so-called “gentleman’s agreement” between the Philippines and China to manage a bitter row over the South China Sea may confound future diplomatic efforts to handle the spat. China sees Philippine commitment as fleeting,

The U.S., the Philippines, and Japan recently met in Washington for a trilateral summit, where they discussed security, diplomacy, economics, and more. At the meeting, Manila also exemplified a strategic alignment with Washington and Tokyo, particularly in countering China's assertiveness in the South China Sea and pursuing economic diversification away from Chinese dependency.

In a more perfect world, the Philippines proximity to China and relationship with the U.S. would be a net positive for the Southeast Asian power. Yet as things stand today, the situation leaves the Philippines walking a tightrope between the world’s preeminent superpowers.