Global headlines on the expanding conflict in the Middle East are showing the world how the deployment of sophisticated ballistic missiles and modern missile defense systems by regional rivals have changed warfare in the 21st century. Although less dramatic, and taking place under conditions of general peace, another highly consequential ‘game of missiles’ is in play on the opposite side of the Eurasian landmass.
In particular, America’s deployment of the state-of-art Typhon missile system to the Philippines could potentially alter the balance of military force in the region. Confronted with China’s complaints, Filipino authorities initially downplayed the presence of much-vaunted Mid-Range Capability (MRC) defense systems on Philippine soil. Against the backdrop of rising tensions in the South China Sea, however, top Philippine military officials have signaled their intent to potentially permanently host, if not also purchase, the Typhon missile system.
Just as crucial is the location of Typhon missile deployments in the Philippines. According to recent satellite imagery, the missile system is currently based in the Laoag International Airport in Laoag, Ilocos Norte, which happens to be just about a 30 minute flight from Taiwan’s southernmost cities.
A land-based and ground-launched system, the Typhon is capable of firing both the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile and the Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) with the range of between 240km (150 miles) and 2,500km (1,550 miles). This means that the weapons system currently has southern Chinese military bases within its range, as well as the Taiwan Straits, the South China Sea and portions of the Western Pacific. Philippine authorities are also currently mulling deployment of more American assets in northernmost bases under an expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the Pentagon.
In theory, these recent developments could enhance America’s ability to potentially deter and more effectively respond to any Chinese kinetic action against neighboring Taiwan. Yet, it could also further inflame Philippine-China maritime disputes in the South China Sea, hurting bilateral relations. Thus, the challenge for the Philippines is how to adopt an approach that enhances its own deterrence strategy as well as alliance with the U.S., but also avoids getting dragged into a new Cuban-style missile crisis drama in coming years.
Taiwan Debate
The Typhon missile saga can only be understood within a broader geopolitical context. In particular, the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration has been revamping the Philippines’ foreign policy in light of renewed concerns in adjacent waters.
On one hand, maritime disputes in the South China Sea have taken a troubling turn in the past year, culminating in multiple near-clashes between Filipino and Chinese maritime forces across multiple disputed land features. The most dramatic cases concern the (i) Second Thomas Shoal, which hosts a de facto Philippine military base atop a grounded vessel; the (ii) Scarborough Shoal, which has been under China’s de facto administration control but is also a traditional fishing ground for countless Filipino families; and, most recently, in the (iii) Sabina Shoal, which is a strategically-located land feature at the heart of the disputed Spratly group of islands.
The other major source of concern, however, is the rising tensions in the Taiwan Straits, especially after former U.S. Speaker of House Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taipei, which triggered a whole series of massive drills by the People’s Liberation Army over the past three years. The Taiwan issue has become central to Philippine foreign policy for three main reasons, namely the presence of large number of Filipino overseas workers in the self-ruling island nation; geographic proximity; and America’s more proactive involvement in cross-straits affairs.
Although the Philippines strictly maintains a ‘One China’ policy, it can no longer afford to be purely ‘neutral’ on the matter. This is especially the case since practically of all the new EDCA bases opened up to the Pentagon are located in northernmost Philippine northern provinces of Cagayan and Isabela, which are close to Taiwan’s southern shores. If anything, the Pentagon has also been exploring greater presence in the Batanes islands, which hosts a naval detachment (i.e. Mavulis) that is just under 100 kilometers away from Taiwan.
Top Philippine officials, most notably president Marcos Jr. himself, have often equivocated on the precise ramifications of the new EDCA bases: Are they meant for purely humanitarian and defensive purposes, or are they potentially going to serve as a platform for American military intervention in an event of contingency in nearby Taiwan?
No wonder then, China has warned the Philippines against playing with fire. As one Chinese expert bluntly put it, “Beijing will see any U.S. move to build up ports and facilities [as a direct threat since they can] be used to support any potential U.S. intervention over a Chinese use of force against Taiwan as hostile.” And this is precisely where the Typhon missile deployment has become an extremely sensitive issue.
Anatomy of a Missile Drama
China has been irked by the Marcos Jr. administration’s increasingly uncompromising position in the South China Sea. But an even greater source of frustration for Beijing is Manila’s decision to abandon the former Rodrigo Duterte administration’s friendly foreign policy in favor of one that has put cooperation with Western allies at the center of Philippine foreign policy.
No less than former president Duterte publicly criticized his successor. “Americans should come clean and give us a truthful narration…and identify the places where they have installed bases here in the Philippines,” he said in his television program. “[Since] the next war or wars will be fought mainly using nuclear warheads” and that the Philippines “would be facing a war not of our own making” if it gets too involved in U.S.-led strategy over Taiwan.
In fairness, the Marcos Jr. administration has sought to project a more multi-aligned and independent foreign policy orientation. In particular, it has been actively developing strategic cooperation with a diverse group of likeminded nations, from New Zealand to India, Japan, South Korea, France and Germany. Nevertheless, America remains as the Philippines’ sole treaty ally and, crucially, a global superpower.
Earlier this year, the U.S. deployed, for the first time, the Typhon missile system ahead of its largest-ever joint exercises with the Philippines. This year’s Balikatan exercises simulated potential war scenarios with China, including in the South China Sea and even near Taiwan, but they did not directly employ the much-vaunted missile system.
Filipino authorities repeatedly equivocated on the precise purpose of the Typhon deployment, but have increasingly adopted a defiant tone amid festering Philippine-China disputes in the South China Sea. While a top general suggests keeping the system on Philippine soil “forever”, another senior defense official boasted about playing mind games with China.
Earlier this year, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi criticized the Philippines’ hosting of the missile system as inimical to regional stability. To drive home its point, China conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test just as the latest Philippine-U.S. army exercises concluded in late-September.
Given China’s preponderance of military power, America’s deployment of a single unit of typhon missile system alone won’t dramatically alter the balance of power in the region. But the Philippines has the option of either opening up more strategically-located bases and/or hosting even more sophisticated American weapons systems in the future.
This is crucial, since deployment of a string of missile defense systems across the Western Pacific would be crucial to determining the fate of any prospective great power conflict in Asia. After all, China’s ‘ace card’ against American naval intervention is its string of ‘carrier-killer’ missile systems stationed across its southern provinces.
Yet, the Philippines has to be cautious not to get dragged into America’s own grand strategy, nor should the Southeast Asian nation get overly involved in cross-straits affairs. Otherwise, Marcos Jr. administration risks unwittingly triggering an unwanted missile crisis drama. Instead, the Philippines can leverage its geography and alliance with the U.S. to better protect its own national interest. For instance, Manila could negotiate meaningful concessions from Beijing in the South China Sea theatre in exchange for not permanently hosting a large number of American weapons systems oriented towards a potential Taiwan conflict. The Philippines’ ultimate challenge is to both maximize all opportunities to enhance its defensive capabilities without unduly sleepwalking into a maelstrom of great power conflict.
