The month of September has been shaping up as a particularly auspicious one for diplomacy in the South China Sea. The Philippines and China conducted their latest edition of Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) in Beijing, where they discussed ways to de-escalate tensions and avoid armed confrontation over disputed land features, most recently the Sabina Shoal.
Committed to restore an element of calm, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong met Philippine Undersecretary Theresa Lazaro and held "frank and candid" discussions on the issue and broader bilateral relations. "The two sides had a candid and in-depth exchange of views on maritime issues between China and the Philippines, especially the issue of [Sabina] Reef", the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in its own statement, though it made it clear that it would "firmly uphold its sovereignty" in the disputed waters and called on the Philippine Coast Guard forces to vacate the contested shoal’s vicinity.
On her part, Philippine Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Theresa Lazaro said separately on her X [formerly known as Twitter] account, that the Philippines underscored how the contested shoal is “within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines” and “reaffirmed [our] consistent position and explored ways to lower the tension."
Although both sides projected strength and an uncompromising position, top diplomats from the Philippines and China agreed to “continue discussions on areas of co-operation, especially on hotline mechanism, coastguard cooperation, and marine scientific and technological co-operation." Days later, the Philippine Coast Guard’s flagship vessel, BRP Teresa Magbanua, vacated the contested shoal for repair and recuperation, thus ending a months-long standoff in the area. Shortly after, China also withdrew its armada of maritime and militia forces from the area, further strengthening diplomatic momentum for a peaceful management of the disputes.
Earlier this year, the two countries also negotiated a ‘provisional agreement’ in the Second Thomas Shoal, which also successfully de-escalated tensions. Both sides denied any pre-arrangement that could compromise their sovereign claims. And Philippine authorities have been adamant that the PCG vessel’s withdrawal had nothing to do with any diplomatic deal. Nevertheless, diplomacy has received a new boost, thanks to tireless efforts by Filipino and Chinese diplomats, who have excruciatingly explored any politically sustainable measures to prevent direct military conflict. At the same time, the path ahead for diplomacy remains uncertain and tempestuous, especially with the Philippines’ diplomatic and defense establishment openly disagreeing on the best course of action ahead.
A Fragile Situation
Located in the strategic Spratly group of islands, the Sabina shoal is a prized land feature claimed by both the Philippines and China. The month of August saw escalating tensions over the contested features following yet another near-collision between Philippine and Chinese vessels in the area, with both sides blaming each other for coming close to direct confrontation.
Manila claims that it is exercising its sovereign rights within its Exclusive Economic Zone, while Beijing seems to be concerned with any potential Philippine plan to construct, similar to the Second Thomas Shoal case, a de facto military base on the contested shoal.
Although the Philippines has managed to hold its ground, so far, and avoid any major armed confrontation, the situation on the ground is increasingly tenuous. According to leading Philippine naval strategist, Ret. Admiral Rommel Jude Ong, constant collisions between Philippine and Chinese forces could progressively degrade the former’s ability to sustain its presence in disputed areas.
Since China has the largest fleet of both conventional and militia forces among claimant states, it’s in a position to engage in what Admiral Ong described as ‘mission kill’ through grayzone tactics such as swarming, ramming and calibrated collisions. For China, it’s simply defending its own sovereign interests and, accordingly, leveraging its preponderance of naval prowess compared to its smaller rivals.
In response, some Filipino strategists have openly called for more drastic responses. A prominent former magistrate, Antonio Caprio, has publicly called for legal warfare against China through additional arbitration cases and joint patrols with American warships.
“I’m recommending [that the] Armed Forces of the Philippines determine if it is time to accept the US offer to escort our resupply [missions] to [Second Thomas Shoal and Sabina Shoal],” Carpio said in a recent public talk. His comments came on the heels of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) chief Samuel Paparo’s recent visit to Manila, where he offered American warships to, inter alia, directly escort Philippine counterparts during resupply missions to disputed areas.
"Every option between the two sovereign nations in terms of our mutual defense, escort of one vessel to the other, is an entirely reasonable option within our Mutual Defense Treaty, among this close alliance between the two of us,” the visiting U.S. commander said, underscoring his country’s defense obligations to its Southeast Asian ally. But top Filipino officials have adopted different positions on the course ahead, underscoring the Philippines’ strategic challenge but also openness to creative and effective approaches to defending its sovereign rights and claims in the South China Sea.
Divergent Voices
On his part, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief, General Romeo Brawner Jr, insisted that the Philippines can handle its own strategic burden in the disputed waters and that it will only solicit America’s direct assistance as a ‘last resort’ if current tensions escalate to new and more dangerous levels. Earlier this year, the top Philippine military general turned down the U.S.’ offer of military assistance in spite of troubling developments in the Second Thomas Shoal.
“Yes, of course, [Americans] have been offering help and they asked us how they could help us in any way [but] [w]e try to exhaust all possible options that we have before we ask for help,” Brawner said earlier this year even after dangerous encounters between Philippine and Chinese forces near the contested shoal.
Meanwhile, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro has adopted a far more hawkish stance against China, which has accused of threatening regional peace. If anything, the Philippine defense chief has questioned the wisdom of diplomatic engagement with Beijing and has gone so far as openly advocating for forming, with Western allies and likeminded powers, an anti-China alliance that is capable of undertaking ‘collective multilateral action’ in the disputed waters in the future.
The Philippine Navy’s Rear Admiral Alexandar Lopez, for his part, has openly called fora ‘review’ of the Philippine-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) likely to strengthen U.S. commitment to militarily intervene on behalf of its Southeast Asian ally should tensions in the South China Sea reach new levels.
The Philippines’ diplomatic chief, however, has taken a far more nuanced position, which tries to balance the need for engagement as well as the indispensability of credible deterrence.
“Diplomacy is diplomacy but it’s not easy. Diplomacy does not mean giving in. You never give in,” the Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary told the author in a recent interview. “[But you try to] [s]ee if you can find a solution or agreement that you both can feel comfortable with. It is never a case that you give in completely to the other side, or submission.”
Although he admitted that diplomacy has become “very difficult” with hawkish voices dominating the debate in both Manila and Beijing, Foreign Affairs Secretary Manalo made it clear that “the aim of every good diplomat is to try to settle any dispute peacefully… find an area of mutual agreement… or agree to disagree.” It’s not clear what direction the maritime disputes take in the coming months. But as the seemingly productive meetings between Filipino and Chinese diplomats in recent months have shown – paving the way for successful de-escalation of tensions in both Second Thomas Shoal and Sabina Shoal --there is a shared interest to de-escalate tensions and avoid direct military conflict.
