Prediction is always difficult, but doubly so in the case of the US president-elect. Donald Trump not only speaks loosely and changes his positions often; he al

America’s best-laid plans to change China have clearly failed over the decades. The question now is whether Donald Trump can rise above that history and meet China on its own terms. If not, the incoming occupant of the White House will sadly preside another failed episode of fruitless U.S. ambitions to conquer China.

Despite his unpredictability, Donald Trump seems committed to the current strategic trajectory. But China has gained a deeper understanding and accumulated significant experience. It will likely approach America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy with greater confidence and composure in Trump’s second term.

The election of Donald Trump to a second term signals that the United States will temporarily step back from the next wave of globalization. As a consequence, Japan’s future security will lie in its deep integration into the processes of globalization and regional integration. This raises an opportunity for improving China-Japan relations.

The recent prisoner swap and forward movement on illicit drugs by China and the United States demonstrates that the two powers can make stabilizing progress together when they put their minds to it. But more uncertainty is on the way, as Donald Trump returns to the White House.

There are no winners in war — either shooting wars or technology wars. The scope of the new agreement between China and the United States is narrower after revisions, yet it’s still good for both sides because it preserves contacts and exchanges at many levels.

From Shinzo Abe’s concept of escaping the postwar regime to Shigeru Ishiba’s idea of postwar political settlement, the trajectory of Japan’s political evolution is becoming increasingly apparent. For both China and the United States, responding to a Japan that embraces strategic autonomy poses a significant strategic challenge.

Rick Waters is the managing director of Eurasia Group’s China practice. He previously served as the U.S. State Department’s inaugural director of the Office of China Coordination (China House) and as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia in the Biden administration. In a recent interview with James Chau of China-US Focus in Tokyo, Rick Waters addresses potential risks and possible cooperation between the U.S. and China.

Increased cooperation among Quad countries and partners in the Indo-Pacific region poses a challenge for Chinese diplomacy. The new U.S. president will not only inherit the security framework built under Joe Biden, but is likely to harden it even further. Thus, China has reason to worry that tensions will rise and that new hot spots will be created.

Daniel Russel is vice-president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute. He previously served as special assistant to U.S. President Barack Obama and Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific affairs at the U.S. State Department from 2013 to 2017. He was a major figure in the Obama administration's "pivot towards Asia" strategy. In a recent interview with James Chau of China-US Focus in Tokyo, Daniel Russel shares his concerns on U.S.-China rivalry in new technologies and its impact on bilateral relations and the globe as well.