American involvement in the Ukraine war is partly driven by moral imperatives, but the deeper reason is concern for its own future security. NATO’s reliance on Washington could increase as Russian power is drained, but it will be difficult to change the tactical balance on the battlefield.

The U.S., the Philippines, and Japan recently met in Washington for a trilateral summit, where they discussed security, diplomacy, economics, and more. At the meeting, Manila also exemplified a strategic alignment with Washington and Tokyo, particularly in countering China's assertiveness in the South China Sea and pursuing economic diversification away from Chinese dependency.

The United States has incentives to outsource the production of weapons, as its domestic capacity is insufficient to meet its needs. Co-production benefits others. But it’s also likely to lead to proliferation across borders, create regional security tensions and increase the risk of conflict.

Washington does not want the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to escalate, as that would undermine its “pivot to Asia” strategy. But it doesn’t mind so much when Israel attacks Iran because that serves as a sort of proxy warning to other hostile forces in the Middle East.

The French president has no intention of rushing troops into Ukraine without first getting his country’s allies to buy in. However, his rhetoric has be alarming, leading to serious discussions about escalation. It’s a very dangerous development.

If Donald Trump returns to the White House next year, it might represent a turnaround for Russia. Although President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia would prefer Joe Biden, he also cannot fail to see an opportunity in Trump to continue his quest to restore Russian dominance, starting with Ukraine.

While Central Asia is caught between two adversarial powers, it is unlikely to distance itself from Russia and China due to its geographical proximity and the already well-established ties between these nations.

The doctrine of “assertive transparency” has dramatically escalated South China Sea tensions. Among other things, it has paved the way to the alignment of the U.S., Japan and Philippines in the impending April summit.

Confrontations over the South China Sea are startling events that bring up the potential for heated conflict, but disagreements in troubled waters have ripple effects that lead to economic problems as well.

As more relatively weak countries find themselves unable to stay out of the war, China must walk a careful path. It must avoid and mitigate risks, safeguard its national interests and put Ukraine on the road to peace at an early date. To this end, it needs a more flexible and pragmatic strategy.