The withdrawal of the Philippine coast guard cutter BRP Teresa Magbanua from Sabina Shoal highlights rising tensions in the South China Sea, where China and the Philippines assert conflicting territorial claims. While it opens the door for potential diplomacy, the incident also underscores the Philippines' growing alignment with the U.S. amid concerns of becoming collateral damage in broader geopolitical rivalries.

Derek Grossman is a senior defense analyst at RAND focused on a range of national security policy and Indo-Pacific security issues. He closely tracks intensifying U.S.-China competition throughout the region, including Asia and Oceania. Grossman was interviewed recently by Wang Zhijin, a reporter for China-US Focus, at the recent Xiangshan Forum in Beijing.

China wields the largest naval capacity in Asia, and has shown no qualms about deploying it to contest waters in its vicinity. The Philippines sitting so near China have faced the brunt of China’s aggressive actions, and must navigate the situation with great strategic acumen.

The Philippines latest round of talks with the U.S. seems to give the impression of a strong shift toward alignment with American interests, but closer examination reveals a pragmatic approach by Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to playing the U.S. against overtures from neighboring China.

The Philippines, ever aware of its strategic importance in Asia’s waters, is making moves to strengthen its positions in economy and defense, the latter area being of utmost importance to Manila when looking at the flurry of activity Manila has taken in recent months.

The Philippines is at a crucial juncture right now, as the U.S. and China jockey for influence over the strategic waters surrounding the nation. Under new leadership favoring the West, the Philippines risks entangling itself in an escalating struggle between the two global powers.

Through a campaign to smear China, the Marcos government has managed to alienate itself from other countries in Southeast Asia. Working hand in glove with the United States, it will only find itself increasingly isolated from other ASEAN member states.

The polemics over a so-called “gentleman’s agreement” between the Philippines and China to manage a bitter row over the South China Sea may confound future diplomatic efforts to handle the spat. China sees Philippine commitment as fleeting,

Amid a shifting foreign policy in the Philippines under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., maritime tensions in the South China Sea have escalated, prompting the Philippines to join the newly-formed Quadrilateral security grouping, dubbed the 'Squad,' to intensify security cooperation. While Marcos Jr. emphasizes diplomatic solutions, tensions persist due to opposing interpretations of past agreements with China, potentially complicating regional dynamics.

The Philippines under Duterte shifted toward a more neutral position between the U.S. and China, but now under the leadership of Marcos Jr, a more U.S. friendly approach has given rise to more flashpoint issues concerning the Philippines accommodations of U.S. military.