The Philippines coast guard cutter BRP Teresa Magbanua, one of the largest vessels in its coast guard fleet, quietly left Spratly Islands’ Sabina Shoal earlier in September, after months of standoff with the Chinese. The Chinese forces successfully blocked attempts to replenish the ship. This incident is one of many, but highlights the ongoing tensions in the region, as both countries assert sovereignty over the contested area.
The withdrawal of the Teresa Magbanua was perhaps negotiated away from the public gaze in Beijing, with talks between the senior diplomats of the two countries who agreed on ‘coastguard cooperation.’ This is an opportunity for both sides to de-escalate and give diplomacy a chance.
The Philippines deployed Teresa Magbanua to the area in April after a large amount of crushed coral was discovered there. This sparked concern in the Philippines and among its allies that China might be planning to build an artificial island similar to the one it built and allegedly fortified in the late 2010’s.
Following Teresa Magbanua’s intrusion, China dispatched a large number of coast guard and paramilitary "Maritime Militia" ships to uphold its blockade.
The South China Sea is a vital waterway, where in addition to China and the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei also have overlapping claims. China’s claim, expressed through the nine-dash line, lays sovereignty over 90 percent of the South China Sea (SCS), bringing it into direct conflict with the U.S. and its allied western powers.
The South China Sea is a crucial geopolitical hotspot. Trillions of dollars in ship-borne trade passes through the SCS annually. Huge unexploited oil and gas deposits are believed to lie under its seabed, though estimates vary greatly. The sea also serves as a critical source of fish, providing essential resources to sustain growing populations.
Most recently, however, confrontations between China and the Philippines have raised fears of a wider conflict over the sea that could involve the United States and other allies. These powers conduct ‘freedom of navigation’ operations in the SCS, which China considers a breach of its sovereignty and thus angers Beijing.
Tensions in the contested SCS have increased significantly since April this year when the Philippines deployed Teresa Magbanua in the Sabina Shoal as a demonstration of its claim over the territory.
In June, China introduced new maritime patrol regulations, authorizing its coast guard to detain foreign vessels for up to 60 days if it suspects them of illegally entering what China considers to be its territorial waters, serving as a warning to the Philippines.
In an about turn from the Duterte era, who chose to deal with China quietly and away from the public eye, the President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.-led Philippines has pushed back against China’s claims over the resource-rich sea. Manila has simultaneously bolstered military ties with the U.S. and its regional partners, Australia and Japan.
Earlier this year, Marcos also attended a trilateral summit with his Japanese and U.S. counterparts at the White House, which appeared to be largely focused on the strategic containment of China.
Additionally, the Philippines has visiting-forces agreements with both Australia and the U.S., hosting nine U.S. military bases on its islands, and under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), it allows U.S. forces rotational access to nine military sites across the country. A similar pact with Japan was signed in July. These agreements allow expanded joint military activities, enhancing interoperability and joint response in various contingencies. Geography is an important factor of the pact as the proximity of U.S. access to military sites in the Philippines enhances the potential for coordinated military actions in the broader region, including in the vicinity of Taiwan. The Philippines is reportedly exploring the possibility of a similar arrangement with France as well.
While the Philippines has historically relied on military alliances with the U.S. to deter Chinese actions in the South China Sea, these expectations appear to be laid to rest for now with the withdrawal of Teresa Magbanua.
Their SCS claims may be legitimate, but aligning too closely with the U.S. carries the danger of Filipinos becoming collateral damage of great power rivalry, says Peter Chang, research associate at the Institute of China Studies, University of Malaya. The tragic reality, he adds, is that in its struggle of global power, the U.S. is willing to use smaller nations as proxies to maintain its supremacy.
While he cobbles military alliances, President Marcos understands that he “cannot go to war” over the SCS and will “talk to China consistently with a firm voice.” While none of the Philippines’ partners are likely to take China on directly, they can only hope to make it a little difficult for Beijing, if the push comes to shove between the two countries.
The Philippines’ full-throated tilt into the Western camp is isolating the country within ASEAN, which broadly maintains warm and economically fruitful ties with China. Several ASEAN leaders have repeatedly stated that the choice of taking sides should not be forced on them.
Richard Heydarian, an academic in Manila and frequent China-US Focus contributor, believes that “this tilt towards the U.S. could jeopardize Manila’s strategic autonomy… as well as concern fellow ASEAN members fretting over the risk of a new cold war.”
Despite international law, including the Hague rulings, China has as much claim on the SCS as Britain has on the Falklands, France has on Tahiti, or the U.S. has on Guam, Hawaii, or even much of continental America. All these territories were occupied and subsequently annexed by the more powerful. And then, as Charles de Gaulle famously said, “possession is nine-tenth of the law.”
But anyone with a sense of history should understand that China cannot be a true great power unless it holds the key to its ‘front door,’ and that is the South China Sea. It cannot afford to leave control of the Sea in the hands of powers openly averse to China’s rise. The spectre of conflict therefore, continues to haunt the South China Sea.
It is perfectly natural for rising powers to become more assertive as they gain influence. China is no exception.
