Could the arbitration award of 12 July 2016 have unexpectedly opened a cycle of appeasement between China and South-East Asian countries in the South China Sea? It is difficult to conclusively answer this question, since behind these changes are uncertainties and continuities likely to undermine at any moment the progress made.

Trump’s eagerness to boost the military’s role in his foreign strategy may well mean tougher positions or even adventurous moves in the South China Sea and on the DPRK nuclear issue, which will not only stimulate sensitive regional situations but also increase risks of an arms race or even confrontation with China.

An influential Washington think tank, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), released a new report, Restoring American Seapower – A Ne

Some ASEAN countries efforts to woo Tokyo because of their suspicions about China’s strategic goals, thus creating an opportunity for Japan to enhance its presence in the region. But the real problem is Japan itself, and China and ASEAN countries should take anticipatory measures to protect the hard-earned détente in the region.

China and ASEAN countries should focus on implementing a dual-track approach and formulating a code of conduct for the sea, as well as establish mechanisms for maritime situations and to build mutual trust. If the US and China are truly committed to a new type of big-country relationship, they will find facilitating this approach to be in their mutual interest.

The US Secretary of State’s visit to Beijing, and his meetings with the Chinese foreign minister, ended with a pledges by both to resolutely advocate denuclearization of the Peninsula, strictly implement UN resolutions and strive for a peaceful resolution. That realistic assessment by both sides is a good omen for more collaboration between Washington and Beijing.

At a time of such global confusion, it is not Brexit, Syria’s civil war, Russian assertiveness or China’s games in the South China Sea that consistently make the newspaper headlines, but the antics and brinkmanship of a state led by a man in his early thirties who is the third generation of a Communist family cult.

The U.S. needs China a great deal more than it does Russia in order to minimize the security threats from the unstable and threatening North Korean regime and to maintain regional stability in Asia.

Given the domestic pressures faced by the major players, especially the US, in the near future, we can only expect an extension of the current dilemma.

China clearly has no intention to engage in a military competition with the U.S. — Beijing has slowed down its growth rate of defense spending while Washington is trying to increase it. Increasing military spending is entirely unnecessary if the U.S. is truly strengthening military and security cooperation with all other major powers in the world.