When he enters the White House, Donald Trump is going to need a resolution of the Ukraine conflict. But Russia’s decision-makers are unlikely to yield to him. Even if Trump got his way, the underlying issues between Russia and the West would persist.

The West’s dominating influence around the world has come under heavy scrutiny as open conflicts rage on in Europe and the Middle East. Does this year’s BRICS Summit, hosted in Russia, represent an inflection point in the global community’s tolerance for U.S.-led order?

The recent election in the United States has given Russia an opportunity to restart strategic dialogues. Under Donald Trump’s leadership, however, U.S.-Russia relations are likely to be dominated by containment and counter-containment. Meanwhile, Russia believes that Russia-China relations are central to world security and can counter Trump’s inclination to make peace through force.

China’s relationship with Russia puts its relationship at risk with the West, and is perhaps the most significant challenge in China-U.S. relations.

Two years ago, I outlined eight lessons from the Ukraine War. And though I warned that it was too early to be confident about any predictions, they have held up

Having endured an abundance of U.S.-led suppression, Russia will undoubtedly move to take advantage of its BRICS presidency to promote four key goals. It is determined to join hands with other BRICS nations to bring about a just, reasonable, multipolar world and break the dominance of the West.

The international system seems unable to curb hegemonism and Cold War thinking, but China-Russia strategic coordination can mark a new path. As the two nations achieve win-win cooperation through the “five always” standard, the fundamental interests of the Chinese people will be served in the process.

NATO appears to be preparing to send troops to Ukraine, as the alliance believes it must defeat Russia at all costs. If it does intervene, it will create two major risks that could pull the world into an abyss: A conventional war could become a nuclear war, and a local war could become a world war.

The war in Ukraine has provided the Biden administration with a chance to realize America’s geopolitical ambitions. Courting the nations of Central Asia could become a major Western success story. But it’s just as likely to end in catastrophe.

We live in a world where geopolitical stability relies largely on deterrence. But how can we prove that deterrence works?