There is a general belief in the international community that Donald Trump’s re-election in the United States will be good for Russia — that strategic dialogue will be able to start again. But things could just as well be characterized by containment and countermeasures into the foreseeable future. The direction of Europe, in particular, will have a direct impact on U.S.-Russia relations.
During his first term, Trump capitalized on the fallout from the 2014 Crimean crisis to push for protectionist trade policies in Europe. However, Europe did not take countermeasures, largely due to a lack of preparation and alliances with the United States in resisting Russia. Compared with situations in Trump’s first term, the biggest difference today is that the war in Ukraine has dragged on for more than two years, during which time Europe’s tolerance for Trump’s coercive policies has worn thin. It is now less willing to allow the war in Ukraine to continue in ways detrimental to its own interests. Countries such as Germany, France and the UK have made it clear that Europe is fully prepared to respond to the so-called Trump shock.
Rationally speaking, Trump should understand that if he ignores Europe’s concerns and pressures it to make concessions on issues related to Ukraine and trade, then his isolationism could backfire. The United States will risk being isolated by its Western allies, and its adversaries may gain opportunities to divide U.S.-led alliances. Therefore, it is unlikely that Trump will make fatal mistakes on such vital issues. In the face of a fully militarized Russia, negotiation and dialogue with Europe and full consideration of its position are likely to be rational choices for Trump and his team.
Flexibility and dilemmas
Trump’s most distinctive belief is that everything involves a transaction. However, most of his experience comes from the business world, and his transactional approach to international relations was unsuccessful in his first term. Now re-elected as U.S. president after four years, he faces huge challenges. Multiple risks, such as intensified geopolitical tensions, sluggish global economic growth, the increasingly destructive power of climate change and frequent cyberattacks have placed considerable strain on international relations. These external pressures will inevitably force Trump to adjust his approach and increase the flexibility of his foreign policy.
Fortunately for him, the legislative branch — the U.S. Congress — is controlled by Republicans and the executive branch welcomes a strong president. These factors will to a large extent help the Trump administration form a more consistent policy in dealing with international affairs and establish a strategic deterrent to Russia and other adversaries.
In fact, it is an uphill battle when it comes to Russia. Analysis suggests that it will be difficult for Trump to craft a peace plan recognized by all parties to resolve the war in Ukraine. Even if he reduces military aid to Ukraine in exchange for Russia’s commitment to peace talks and a truce, it will still be difficult to resolve the hostility NATO members feel toward Russia.
While Ukraine cannot stop the advance of Russian troops without help, there will be brave Ukrainians who choose to resist to the end. What’s more, a deal that disregards Ukraine’s interests will not succeed. Some European leaders have said that if Washington cuts military aid to Ukraine, Europe may send troops into the country.
Interestingly, after the U.S. and European media widely reported that Trump had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss resolving the Ukraine issue, Trump announced on social media a list of calls he had with world leaders after his election victory — and Putin was notably absent from the list. This suggests that Trump wants to keep a certain distance from Putin while figuring out the terms of any potential transaction with him.
Distrust of the West
The Western world has viewed Russia as one of its major threats and systematically introduced policies to contain it. Although Putin called Trump to congratulate him on his reelection and announced his readiness to restore Russia-U.S. relations, Moscow’s policy of exchanging development for security will not change until Trump meets Russia’s security demands. For Moscow, the Western world has never paid proper attention to its goodwill gestures in the 30 years since the end of the Cold War. Instead, it has tried to establish multiple anti-Russian alliances to create trouble. Upon Trump’s reelection, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that Moscow had no illusions and expects that the U.S. will maintain its anti-Russian stance and continue on the path of containment, regardless which political party is in power.
On the other hand, Russia is deepening strategic coordination with China to respond to future security challenges. Ahead of the APEC and G20 summits, Secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council Sergei Shoigu visited China for the highest-level strategic security consultation between the two countries after the U.S. election. According to RIA Novosti news agency, China said during the talks that the two sides will strengthen coordination on strategic issues that affect the security and interests of both sides, enhance strategic mutual trust and expand areas of bilateral strategic cooperation. Russia believes that Russia-China relations are central to world security and can counter Trump’s inclination to restore peace through force.
