Beijing’s influence on the Ukraine crisis is limited. Neither Washington nor NATO should nurse unrealistic expectations. Relations between China and Russia should not be viewed through the lens of Ukraine. It’s in everyone’s interest to stop the crisis from escalating into a global confrontation.

The United States is the biggest winner in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It’s using it to beef up and modernize its own military and economy. Everyone else has lost. No end is in sight, but one thing is certain: The longer the conflict lasts, the more the U.S. benefits.

Russia’s irrational struggle has accelerated a process in which nearby countries are induced to turn against it. Making war is a costly way of fighting. Our country needs to learn how to win without fighting through the use of soft methods.

The United States lacks the strength and influence to simultaneously contain both China and Russia. As with the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, its policies will place it in strategic overdraft and lead to more strategic errors.

It is clear that China has little chance of changing Russia’s hard-line position in its war with Ukraine. Nor can it solve the “Russia problem” in the West. It can only act as it sees fit to safeguard the interests of the Chinese people.

A peaceful resolution may be achieved in Ukraine but only under certain conditions - ones which don’t appear to be materializing any time soon.

Up till now, the fighting has been going on for over 100 days, with the two warring sides still in an offensive and defensive stalemate. Questions about this ongoing crisis can be listed in a long line, most of which no one can answer at this time. Yet among all the uncertainties, one thing is certain: what the Russian troops crossed on February 24 was not simply the land border between Russia and Ukraine, but rather more symbolically, the River Rubicon of the post-cold war international order.

Alienating Russia will not increase stability for Europe, nor will Russia disappear as a result of the Ukraine war. But Russia’s old power model — needlessly using force to punish countries for switching sides — needs to change.

Views differ on what triggered the current conflict. But whatever the pros and cons of NATO expansion, the conclusion must be that China, not Russia, is the greater long-term, structural and potentially lethal challenger to America.

The phrase “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow” has been heard frequently in Taiwan since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. But separatists on the island are not sure the United States would come to their rescue if Beijing moved toward reunification.