Donald Trump’s Ukraine plan, which aims to end the war in Ukraine, is the primary diplomatic initiative of the incoming U.S. president’s term. It is not only a bargaining tool for Trump to make deals with NATO countries and Russia but also a way for him to leave his mark on history. Trump also announced plans to hold a U.S.-Russia summit for the purpose of ending the war.
“America first” approach to the war
The Ukraine plan, also called the Kellogg Report, is guided by Trump’s “America first” doctrine and designed by Keith Kellogg, a retired lieutenant general in the U.S. military and Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia affairs. Released in April, the report argues that the war in Ukraine war is an avoidable tragedy that resulted from President Joe Biden’s incompetence as a world leader and his chaotic foreign policy. It notes that the Ukraine war is an exceptionally complex foreign policy question for the United States and that the “America first” approach requires a strong military, the prudent use of U.S. force and keeping U.S. troops out of other unnecessary, endless wars. It means working within alliances and with partners to promote regional security while requiring alliance members and allies to carry their full weight on the cost of security in the region.
Based on these principles, the report outlines plans to end the Ukraine war, strengthen NATO’s deterrence against Russia, negotiate a new strategic arms reduction treaty with Russia and engage in dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin instead of isolating him.
After winning U.S. election, Trump’s policy stance on the Ukraine war has been based on the Kellogg Report. However, after gaining access to more intelligence about the war, Kellogg recognized the difficulty of ending it and made revisions. He proposed continuing to provide military assistance and security guarantees to Ukraine, while postponing its accession to NATO, and imposing new restrictions on Russian energy exports. He even suggested to Trump’s national security adviser, Michael Waltz, that Ukraine be allowed to use long-range missiles to increase pressure on Putin. Trump said he hoped to see the war come to an end within six months, although he pledged during the campaign to resolve it within 24 hours.
Uncontrollable factors
Most international affairs analysts believe that Trump’s Ukraine plan is unlikely to work, citing a growing divide between Ukraine and Russia that exceeds the conditions outlined in the Kellogg Report. For example, Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, posing a potential threat to Russia. Even if Ukraine agrees to delay its NATO membership, it may invite NATO troops into its territory, potentially leading to a direct confrontation between NATO forces and the Russian military.
Even worse, the basis for mutual trust between the parties responsible for the war is seriously deficient. Researchers at the United Kingdom’s Royal Institute of International Affairs believe that the percentage of people in Ukraine who accept territorial concessions to Russia in exchange for a quick end to the war has risen from 10 percent in 2022 to 32 percent now. However, the key lies in a fair and lasting peace plan, not merely trading territory for temporary peace, because Ukrainians have lost trust in Russia’s promises. Since the Crimea crisis in 2014, Ukraine and Russia have signed 17 cease-fire agreements, none of which prevented Russia from invading Ukraine. Trump’s Ukraine plan aligns closely with Putin’s peace plan, which essentially calls for Kyiv to surrender. Meanwhile, Moscow believes that Trump’s Ukraine plan is buying time for Ukraine and cannot resolve the conflict between Russia and NATO.
The behavior of Putin and his team is unpredictable. After nearly three years of war, the Russians have built a wartime decision-making system characterized by rich experience and high efficiency, and they are adept at exploiting Western fears and encouraging misjudgments about Russia's intentions. Members of Putin’s regime even threatened that Russia could strike a series of targets in multiple countries to restore sanity to those who have lost their minds.
On the battlefield, after five months of effort, Ukraine has established a buffer zone in the Kursk region of Russia, relieving some of the pressure on the eastern front. A serious shortage of troops and the involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, however, have left Ukrainian forces unable to prevent Russia’s advances in eastern Ukraine. Therefore, both the strengths and weaknesses of Trump’s Ukraine plan are prominently on display, and it will be difficult for him to secure overwhelming dominance in negotiations with Putin.
Timeline may go off track
Whether or not the war can be ended in Trump’s promised timeline will be a critical test of the returning president and his national security team. The Ukrainian finance minister said the Ukrainian army could continue fighting until at least mid-2025 without further U.S. support. Therefore, the June-July time frame will be pivotal in determining the war’s outcome.
I believe that Trump will not be able to end the war according to his proposed timeline, at least before August. There is no sign that Russia will adjust its wartime system. On the contrary, Moscow’s goal is clear: to render Ukraine incapable of defending itself. Trump is clear that imposing his Ukraine plan on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could give Putin an opportunity to harness the capacity of the Russian defense industry. After a short interval in peace talks the Russian army could be rearmed, thus reemerging as a strategic force to deter the United States and its NATO allies for the next few years. From this perspective, Trump’s Ukraine plan is fraught with challenges and uncertainty.
