In small but steady degrees, the United States is undercutting its stated commitment to “one China” by subtly modifying its words. The meanings it has added in diplomatic discourse do not promote confidence that it will continue to honor the agreements it has made. On the contrary, U.S. actions belie those agreements.

Recently elected leader Lai Ching-te is turning toward open advocacy for independence. But his populist agitation is straining relations with the United States, dragging down economic development and potentially compromising peace and stability in the region.

Three evils threaten to prevent the peaceful reunification of the Chinese people. Many on both sides hope for a respectful resolution of the Taiwan issue. This will require a comprehensive and nuanced approach by key stakeholders on the island and in Beijing, as well as the international community.

While Lai Ching-te’s victory in Taiwan’s elections was expected, the parliamentary vote for the Legislative Yuan was less predictable, leading to a presidential administration that lacks a parliamentary majority for the first time in many years. But ultimately, the election’s impact on cross-Strait relations Sino-American relations remains to be seen.

The EU must strike a balance on its Taiwan policy, akin to other major powers, and have a comprehensive strategy. As the U.S. elections approach, which will have significant geopolitical implications for the self-governed island, Europe, a potential pivotal player, must carefully consider moves to uphold credibility on the global stage and maintain a coherent and principled foreign policy.

Taiwan’s new leader expressed radical views regarding independence on the campaign trail. But with the election now behind him, he seems to have softened. He should listen to public opinion and cool the hot rhetoric before his May 20 inauguration.

The United States has a long history of interference in Taiwan’s internal politics. Now that the ruling party has fewer seats than the opposition, Washington is likely to ramp up its influence on Ko Wen-je and his minority Taiwan People’s Party, which has suddenly become a crucial swing vote.

The recent Taiwan election will pose challenges for relations between China and the United States because Taiwan’s new leaders have been strong agitators for independence. But it’s unlikely that they will pursue any brazen acts, as that would complicate the U.S. presidential election and otherwise work against America’s interests.

The upcoming presidential election in Taiwan is shaped by both domestic concerns and the U.S.-China struggle over the self-governing island. Key local issues like the economy, energy independence, healthcare, and corruption are dominating the electoral discourse, and whoever wins will play a key role in shaping cross-strait relations—and U.S.-China relations—in 2024 and the years to come.