The United States often uses the term “international waters,” but no such thing is defined in the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. When the false claim is made that China is in violation of the rules, it needs to clarify its jurisdiction.

In the midst of the Cold War, US policymakers became convinced that détente with China would best serve America’s strategic interests. It was only made possible after the question of Taiwan was handled with diplomatic dexterity. The magic formulation clinched after painstaking negotiation was US acknowledgement of the Chinese position that “there is one China, and Taiwan is a part of China”.

Washington might believe that Russia’s poor performance in Ukraine will make China think twice about using force, or that China will be constrained by the CPC’s 20th National Congress. But this is a grave misunderstanding.

Three main problems must be addressed in advance to reduce risk: a possible accident arising from a military encounter, dangerous actions by the United States that touch China’s red lines and provocative rhetoric by members of the U.S. Congress.

On the 50th anniversary of the Shanghai Communique regarding Taiwan, it’s clear the United States has begun playing a dangerous game, modifying its discourse. It should be cautious.

The United States needs to stop undermining Chinese sovereignty. Plenty of reassuring words have appeared on paper over the past seven decades, but the U.S. has been two-faced. There is simply no reason for it to lean, secretly or openly, toward confrontation.

The China-Taiwan standoff has been a flashpoint for international tensions involving the U.S. for the better part of the last century. With Biden in the Oval Office and the U.S.’s escalating attention towards China, the latest developments in the space must be watched closely.

Perhaps America has underestimated China’s resolve, even as it blurs diplomatic and military lines. No one should underestimate the negative impact on peaceful reunification that further engagement between the U.S. and Taipei might have.

The Chinese government has so far adhered to its commitment to peaceful reunification with Taiwan. But a fundamental change in China’s stance, forced by a dangerously cavalier U.S. attitude, will make it hard to avoid a non-peaceful solution.

The collapse of Afghanistan’s government has caused a shift in the discourse about other U.S. defense commitments around the world. China has engaged in public saber-rattling when it comes to Taiwan, yet the situation is day and night in comparison.