The 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum covered all aspects of the Global Security Initiative, with official representatives and scholars from China and foreign countr

Different goals will determine how China and the United States will engage. Both sides want peace in the Taiwan Strait — which is the first point of consensus and one that should be expanded. The trouble is that the voices for peace are not in the mainstream in the United States.

The statesman recognized the inevitability of China’s rise and suggested how the United States should handle it. The two countries have the capability to bring peace and progress to the world, as well as the ability to destroy it all. Which will they choose?

China and the U.S. both emphasize that their Taiwan policies have not changed, even though their wording has. The larger problem, however, is that the authorities in Taiwan authorities are bent on independence and rely heavily on U.S. power. This has created an Asian powder keg.

Past agreements that were sufficient to navigate the political complexities are being eroded. China and the United States now seem driven toward more military posturing. But the notion of gaining security solely through military might is an illusion. A new approach is needed.

U.S. allies in East Asia are growing reluctant to support American military actions in the event of a conflict with China over Taiwan. These allies express concerns about the significant costs and risks associated with such a conflict, prompting them to advocate for restraint and inform Washington that it would have to confront any resulting conflict with China independently.

Just as a pianist practises a new piece of music slowly, with attention to every phrase, keeping the first signs of goodwill between Washington and Beijing on track calls for a disciplined use of words. More educational exchanges and people-to-people interactions will also help improve understanding and dispel fear and suspicion.

The Taiwan stand-off between the island, China, and the U.S. has been a simmering point of tension for decades, but with anti-China rhetoric ratcheting up in the West, and bolder American overtures towards Taiwan’s elected leaders, the potential for open conflict seems more and more likely.

The United States is at a three-way crossroads. It must decide whether to defend Taiwan, abandon Taiwan or destroy Taiwan. Will the U.S. risk being dragged into a war as it continues to use Taiwan to contain China’s progress? The clock is ticking.

Washington’s repeated provocations — both military and political — have made any recovery of stable relations with China difficult. If the United States fails to comprehend the serious nature of the Taiwan question, war will likely result.