Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election is worrisome. People-to-people exchanges between China and the United States faced many challenges during his first term, and the Republican Party Platform is not friendly to outsiders. There could be stormy weather ahead.

In small but steady degrees, the United States is undercutting its stated commitment to “one China” by subtly modifying its words. The meanings it has added in diplomatic discourse do not promote confidence that it will continue to honor the agreements it has made. On the contrary, U.S. actions belie those agreements.

Derek Grossman is a senior defense analyst at RAND focused on a range of national security policy and Indo-Pacific security issues. He closely tracks intensifying U.S.-China competition throughout the region, including Asia and Oceania. Grossman was interviewed recently by Wang Zhijin, a reporter for China-US Focus, at the recent Xiangshan Forum in Beijing.

Humans are a tool-making species, but can we control the tools we make? When Robert Oppenheimer and other physicists developed the first nuclear fission weapon in the 1940s, they worried that their invention might destroy humanity. Thus far, it has not, but controlling nuclear weapons has been a persistent challenge ever since.

Security threat worries are unfounded. A ban of the platform would only undermine the confidence of international investors and pose significant risks to global economic development. Investors should pay close attention to these risks when making investment decisions.

Sino-American AI cooperation is vital and feasible across most areas. And as a Special Administrative Region of China, Hong Kong is uniquely capable of serving as the forum and location for in-depth engagement between China and the U.S, including inter-governmental and government-to-citizen dialogues.

The United States has a long history of interference in Taiwan’s internal politics. Now that the ruling party has fewer seats than the opposition, Washington is likely to ramp up its influence on Ko Wen-je and his minority Taiwan People’s Party, which has suddenly become a crucial swing vote.

Charlene Barshefsky, a former top U.S. official, discusses in the interview with China-US Focus the lengthy negotiation process for China's entry into the WTO and its lasting impacts on China's economy, global integration, and U.S.-China relations, despite current challenges in trade norms and geopolitical shifts. She also emphasizes the significance of international businesses having a presence in China and the considerations they need to evaluate when determining whether to expand to the Chinese market.

The United States has stayed focused on the South China Sea even as it deals with major international crises. In fact, it has intensified its maritime military activity and and even enlisted partners in the eastern Pacific region to create friction between China and its neighbors. It is playing with fire.

Washington’s repeated provocations — both military and political — have made any recovery of stable relations with China difficult. If the United States fails to comprehend the serious nature of the Taiwan question, war will likely result.