President-elect Donald Trump held a meeting on Dec. 14, 2024 with some of Silicon Valley's biggest companies. Attendees included Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Satya Nadella, Jeff Bezos, Larry Page, Eric Schmidt, Safra Catz, Brian Krzanich, Chuck Robbins, Ginni Rometty and Peter Thiel.
China and the United States signed a protocol to extend their cooperation agreement in science and technology. But while the extension provides support for ongoing exchanges, concerns persist that relations in sci-tech could face new challenges when Donald Trump returns to the White House.
In Trump’s first term, the U.S. government’s technology policy with regard to China centered on three goals:
• First, it tried to fundamentally alter the nature of China-U.S. tech relations by shifting from the notion of “win-win cooperation” to “strategic competition.” The government tightened investment and export controls for China’s advanced technology and frequently warned domestic research institutions, universities and companies against the alleged threat of Chinese espionage. Such moves disrupted the stability that had characterized tech cooperation between the two countries for decades.
• Second, the administration tried to crack down on China’s leading technology companies. Huawei, Tencent, ByteDance and other Chinese tech giants faced various forms of suppression and restriction. The U.S. also placed a large number of Chinese technology companies on blacklists in areas such as export controls and investment, compelling them to divest themselves of investments in the United States.
• Third, it worked to reduce reliance on China within the United States and among its allies. A typical example was the Clean Network plan, which aimed to reduce the application of Chinese technology products in critical areas, such as 5G infrastructure, app stores, cloud services and marine cables. Some of its hardcore allies, including Japan and Australia, largely supported the U.S. stance, but many European countries adopted a more cautious position of compromise.
The Biden administration has generally maintained the policies established during Trump’s first term, but with a greater emphasis on engagement and dialogue amid ongoing competition. In addition to the renewal of the science and technology cooperation agreement, its most outstanding achievement was the establishment of an export control information exchange, which has to some extent slowed the decline of mutual trust.
The Biden administration has retained channels of engagement for scientific research cooperation in areas of common concern, such as climate change and public health. This approach shows the world that there is still room for collaboration in some areas of high-tech between the two nations. Trump’s return to the White House may interrupt the improving trend, however.
First, the tariffs and trade wars Trump has promised to launch will inevitably affect the technology sector. To gain an advantage in industrial competition, the Trump administration may expand export controls on China and pressure industrial chain partners, such as Japan and the Netherlands, to strengthen restrictions on the export of semiconductor equipment and materials to China.
Washington may also intensify efforts to block the overseas market for Chinese technology products and launch actions similar to the Clean Network plan to pressure its allies to raise trade barriers against Chinese smart products. In this context, China-U.S. sci-tech competition is expected to grow more intense.
Second, the Trump administration is not interested in constructive engagement and interaction. Trump’s recent remarks illustrate that his second term will continue the foreign policy approach of his first term, which was characterized by broken promises, startling surprises and forced concessions on adversaries.
In Trump’s view, this strategy will bring greater benefits to the United States and advance his “America first” agenda. At the same time, however, his unconventional approach risks escalating tensions and eroding trust between China and the United States. In sci-tech relations, mutual trust remains fragile and a lack of clear communication could easily lead to unforeseen crises.
Third, the U.S. Congress, which is dominated by China hawks, may push for restrictions through legislation that could fundamentally impact sci-tech relations. During the Biden administration, some extreme anti-China bills in Congress encountered resistance from thoughtful members of the public and multinational companies. Recently, provisions restricting Chinese companies’ participation in U.S. drug research and development, restricting tech investment in China and reviewing the China-U.S. sci-tech cooperation agreement have not been included in either temporary appropriations or in the annual National Defense Authorization law. However, after Trump takes office, his team could join hands with the more hawkish members of Congress, paving the way for the adoption of extreme legislation and causing irreversible damage to China-U.S. relations and the global high-tech industrial chain.
At the same time, Trump’s pragmatic approach and his new team may also bring signs of easing in some sectors. I this regard, it should be noted that Trump does not take a one-size-fits-all approach to all Chinese tech products. Known for his “immediate interests first” style, he may adopt a different stance in some areas compared with his first term. For example, he has made several favorable comments on TikTok and agreed to allow the app to continue operating in the United States for at least a while.
Whether he can change the ruling on the forced sale of TikTok remains in doubt, but it’s clear that his attitude has shifted, moving away from demonizing such products and applications. This may indicate that in his second term Trump may take a more rational approach to the formation of a win-win technology industry ecosystem that serves both China and the United States.
A number of tech giants have joined the Trump team for his second term, including Tesla founder Elon Musk and tech venture capitalist Marc Andreessen. With their deep professional knowledge and rich experience, these tech professionals have a nuanced understanding of the complexity of China-U.S. tech relations, and their presence in the administration could bring greater rationality to policy. This could help reduce misunderstandings and misjudgments and ultimately play a constructive role in the fields of artificial intelligence, tech investment and tech exchanges.
