Prediction is always difficult, but doubly so in the case of the US president-elect. Donald Trump not only speaks loosely and changes his positions often; he al

America’s best-laid plans to change China have clearly failed over the decades. The question now is whether Donald Trump can rise above that history and meet China on its own terms. If not, the incoming occupant of the White House will sadly preside another failed episode of fruitless U.S. ambitions to conquer China.

The election of Donald Trump to a second term signals that the United States will temporarily step back from the next wave of globalization. As a consequence, Japan’s future security will lie in its deep integration into the processes of globalization and regional integration. This raises an opportunity for improving China-Japan relations.

The Trump White House is likely to ignite another round of inflation in new trade and tech wars. And that could drive U.S.-China ties to the edge.

Trump’s old concept of tariffs originates in U.S. policies from the 19th century. He believes that he excels in the art of creating a “level playing field” to generate jobs at home. But what he is proposing would be the highest tariff level since the Great Depression.

Domestic political turmoil in the United States is probable and will, in turn, likely constrain the incoming president’s foreign policy. It may ignite fierce infighting — so much that even many Republicans worry that the U.S. could return to isolationism.

Donald Trump’s trade policies have been characterized by an aggressive use of tariffs, driven by his belief in balancing bilateral trade and prioritizing American production. While these measures have reshaped trade dynamics and escalated protectionism within the U.S., they have also inadvertently strengthened China's global economic position and highlighted the limitations of decoupling efforts.

BRICS countries, with a combined GDP approximately 1.5 times that of the United States, can be expected to retaliate against promised U.S. tariffs. These countries — many of which are major traders with China — are likely to make Donald Trump regret his bellicose bullying.

A fundamental shift in how the international community approaches global governance is required. Through concerted action, nations can resist the pull of unilateralism and build a more inclusive and stable international order.

The Trump administration’s blame-driven approach to U.S.-China relations fueled mutual losses and entrenched scapegoating of China for U.S. domestic issues. Ultimately, subnational diplomacy and pragmatic collaboration are essential for rebuilding constructive ties.