The second Trump administration’s China policies have thus far been very opaque and difficult to discern. However, in recent weeks a variety of indicators are beginning to make them clearer—and one dominant theme emerges: China will be viewed as America’s principal adversary.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to promoting peace in Ukraine has brought significant changes. China needs to find new roles for itself in promoting the peace process, while continuing to advocate political solutions.

China and Russia, long united by shared strategic objectives, have formed a quasi-alliance that poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests. As the Trump administration navigates this complex relationship, could strengthening U.S. alliances and boosting military readiness be the key to countering this formidable partnership?

The longer the war drags on, the more variables there will be. Bearing this in mind, Volodymyr Zelenskyy may modify his tough stance against giving up land and seek more pragmatic ways to end the war, such as a truce conditional on NATO or European Union membership.

The “with us or against us" diplomatic approach has polarizing effects, particularly in the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And the global outrage against Russia’s aggression and critiques of China’s tacit support suggests that Putin’s actions will be viewed as a moral failure akin to past fascist regimes.

For the Ukrainian president to consummate his victory plan he must either wait for or create favorable external conditions. The plan is closely intertwined with the evolving dynamics of relations between China, the United States and Russia.

China’s relationship with Russia puts its relationship at risk with the West, and is perhaps the most significant challenge in China-U.S. relations.

Two years ago, I outlined eight lessons from the Ukraine War. And though I warned that it was too early to be confident about any predictions, they have held up

China and Russia have grown closer, but not just because they want to support one another in the face of Western pressure. Their relations have a long-standing momentum of their own. Guided by their heads of state, the comprehensive strategic partnership will only grow stronger.

The United States has intensified its efforts to assert or reclaim American Primacy in Asia. Assert if one holds the view that it still holds military preponderance; reclaim if one believes that it doesn’t. Through a series of so-called mini-lateral arrangements, the US has in recent years sought to enlist its Asia Pacific client states, former colonies and subimperial allies to anchor a 21st Century bulwark on the western edge of America’s Lake. The Quad, AUKUS and now the trilateral involving Japan and the Philippines form part of a lattice-like network, in all practical intents and purposes, aimed squarely at the containment of China.