The longer the war drags on, the more variables there will be. Bearing this in mind, Volodymyr Zelenskyy may modify his tough stance against giving up land and seek more pragmatic ways to end the war, such as a truce conditional on NATO or European Union membership.

The “with us or against us" diplomatic approach has polarizing effects, particularly in the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And the global outrage against Russia’s aggression and critiques of China’s tacit support suggests that Putin’s actions will be viewed as a moral failure akin to past fascist regimes.

For the Ukrainian president to consummate his victory plan he must either wait for or create favorable external conditions. The plan is closely intertwined with the evolving dynamics of relations between China, the United States and Russia.

China’s relationship with Russia puts its relationship at risk with the West, and is perhaps the most significant challenge in China-U.S. relations.

Two years ago, I outlined eight lessons from the Ukraine War. And though I warned that it was too early to be confident about any predictions, they have held up

China and Russia have grown closer, but not just because they want to support one another in the face of Western pressure. Their relations have a long-standing momentum of their own. Guided by their heads of state, the comprehensive strategic partnership will only grow stronger.

The United States has intensified its efforts to assert or reclaim American Primacy in Asia. Assert if one holds the view that it still holds military preponderance; reclaim if one believes that it doesn’t. Through a series of so-called mini-lateral arrangements, the US has in recent years sought to enlist its Asia Pacific client states, former colonies and subimperial allies to anchor a 21st Century bulwark on the western edge of America’s Lake. The Quad, AUKUS and now the trilateral involving Japan and the Philippines form part of a lattice-like network, in all practical intents and purposes, aimed squarely at the containment of China.

As more relatively weak countries find themselves unable to stay out of the war, China must walk a careful path. It must avoid and mitigate risks, safeguard its national interests and put Ukraine on the road to peace at an early date. To this end, it needs a more flexible and pragmatic strategy.

China and Russia’s maligned relationship looks on the surface to be a new axis of power against the U.S. - but by playing it safe, China seeks to reap the benefits of Russia’s favor without offending the West.

At the recent international security gathering, China made clear that it opposes military hegemony — where a superpower seeks to settle disputes by force. China, by contrast is working to bring the international community together to shape a new order that is more just and reasonable.