U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to promoting peace in Ukraine has brought significant changes. China needs to find new roles for itself in promoting the peace process, while continuing to advocate political solutions.
The war in Ukraine has now entered its fourth year. Over the past three years, Ukraine has tenaciously defended its national sovereignty despite a shortage of ammunition and manpower and a huge toll in lives and resources. At the same time, Russia has spent more than $200 billion on its ongoing military operations.
Pushing for an end to the war, U.S. President Donald Trump has adopted a new strategy — making concessions to Russia while pressuring Ukraine and European countries to facilitate negotiations. His approach has caused serious geopolitical rifts. Although the prospect of peace in Ukraine seems within reach, it remains elusive. The situation presents new challenges for China as it seeks to promote the peace process.
Controversy in the process
On the third anniversary of the war, the United Nations adopted two draft resolutions reflecting the international community's efforts to bring it to an end. However, the voting process revealed significant challenges.
First, the draft resolution proposed by Ukraine was supported by the majority of countries and passed on the first vote. Most of the voting nations expressed sympathy for Ukraine’s situation. All the countries of the European Union (except Hungary) and the United Kingdom voted in favor, while the United States and Russia voted no. China abstained.
Second, the draft resolution proposed by the United States created more disagreements. Russia proposed amendments to the U.S. version, but these were rejected. Subsequently, EU countries, including France, Germany and the UK, suggested three amendments to the U.S. version, all of which were accepted. However, when the revised U.S. version was finally put to a vote, the United States and China both abstained, and Russia voted against it.
Russia argues that the U.S. version of the draft ignores its interests, especially by failing to include content on solving the “root causes” of the conflict. Therefore, the entire voting process highlights the fact that prospects for peace in Ukraine remain unclear, as significant differences linger on key issues.
Compromise hard to attain
The transactional nature of Trump’s diplomacy aligns with Vladimir Putin’s strategic interests to some extent. With the turnaround in U.S.-Russia relations, international investors have recognized potential opportunities in the Russian market, leading to a rise in share prices on the Moscow Exchange. Data show that the MOEX Russia Index rose in February by nearly 500 points over January. This economic boost further consolidates domestic support for Putin.
Well aware of Trump’s negotiation objectives and unwilling to give in, Putin knows that the risks and costs of reaching a quick agreement with Trump cannot be ignored. On Ukraine, Putin’s strategic goal is clear: to prioritize the improvement of Russia-U.S. relations. The key steps to achieving this goal include, first, restoring normal diplomatic relations between the two nations; and second, pushing the United States to lift economic sanctions on Russia — especially restrictions on 50 Russian banks and its energy sector. However, some Russians don’t see the United States as a trustworthy partner. Ivan Timofeev, director-general of the Russian International Affairs Council, said that even though Russia and the United States may eventually reach a compromise on Ukraine, the process is complicated by interwoven contradictions and an extremely low level of mutual trust between the two sides. These make for a challenging process.
China’s new role
Trump’s approach to promoting peace in Ukraine has brought significant changes to the situation there. In this context, China needs to seek new roles to promote the peace process while consistently pursuing a political solution. Specifically, it needs to deal with three key issues given the rapidly evolving situation:
First, it needs to maintain the unique strategic value of China-Russia relations. The two countries should ensure that their strategic cooperation is not affected by external interference and that its core characteristics are retained. This involves steadily advancing cooperation in different fields, including mutual assistance in regional security, acting on complementary economic interests, promoting cultural exchanges and demonstrating win-win cooperation on the international stage.
This year they plan to hold a number of high-profile bilateral activities, including commemorations marking the 80th anniversary of victory in the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the global anti-fascist war. These occasions provide new opportunities for bilateral cooperation.
Second, it must respond to the self-reliance strategy for security in European countries. The Trump administration’s sudden slamming on the brakes with respect to Ukraine has prompted Europe to reexamine its self-reliance strategy and explore the development of a security architecture that aligns with its own interests, rather than relying solely on the United States.
In this context, China should support Europe in achieving security autonomy and work to prevent dominance by a single force over the global security structure. Elaborating on China’s position on resolving the Ukraine crisis, the Chinese foreign minister pointed out that Europe should play a more active role in promoting the peace process and help to jointly resolve the root causes of the conflict.
Finally, China must participate in international peacekeeping operations in Ukraine when they align with its interests. Sending peacekeeping forces to conflict zones can help prevent a recurrence of fighting and provide a platform for political settlement, thereby promoting long-term peace.
In the negotiations between Trump and Putin, the prospect of sending European peacekeeping forces to Ukraine is an important item on the agenda. If Putin makes concessions on this issue, China can deploy peacekeeping forces in the conflict area at the invitation of Russia and Ukraine. This participation could take place under the framework of the United Nations or the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, offering active support for the peace process.
The prospect of peace in Ukraine is at a critical crossroads. Unilateral moves that undermine international rules and order and that disregard the balance of interests among multiple parties cannot bring lasting peace. Only through multilateral cooperation fostered by fair processes and respect for the interests of all parties can a true and enduring peace be achieved.
