In recent years, Sino-Russian relations have become a model of great power relations with high degree of mutual trust, high level of collaboration and high strategic value. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the assessment of the challenges for China-Russia relations in the external environment, the understanding of the conflict’s role in reshaping China-Russia relations, and the examination of the prospects of China-Russia relations have been critical in the analysis of how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will impact the game of great powers.

The dominant narrative on the Chinese side is that this strategic competition between the two countries reflects the struggles for power, institutions, and perceptions, which will last throughout the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. In general, it is thus believed that competition and struggle have been adopted as key words for both Washington and Beijing in managing their relations.

At first glance, the Ukraine conflict has some loose parallels to 1958, when the People’s Liberation Army shelled Kinmen without notifying Russia in advance. But while rumors of intrigue may raise eyebrows, the comparison falls apart quickly.

Multiple factors are preventing the United States from unveiling a clear position. Uncertainties in domestic politics, the conflict in Ukraine, an alleged China-Russia axis and the Taiwan issue all factor in. The U.S. is at a foreign policy crossroads in a complex environment.

The ongoing Ukraine conflict may be the turning point that observers and politicos alike speak of to shift the focus of global leadership away from American hegemony, and towards a multipolar paradigm.

Europe’s fear, exacerbated by heavy dependence on Russia for energy, has been exposed more clearly by the conflict. Along with other factors, the fear is likely to result in a stricter and more selective EU approach to China.

Changes have already come to the nature of war, but non-state actors will change international relations more broadly in the future, becoming an important force affecting the evolution of the international order and changing the balance of power.

While the United States and its Western allies might wish that China would adopt their position and help to mediate an end to the crisis, China has crafted a stance that conforms to its own interests. It simply doesn’ t have the influence other countries may imagine.

The continuing attacks on Ukraine should be a point where global leaders should be able to align on creating a solution - but outside of a vacuum, tense relations and posturing are getting in the way.

U.S.-Russia cooperation aboard the International Space Station is hopefully a glimpse of how two nations at an all-time-low in relations can still cooperate on shared interests. However, whether or not this may foreshadow a future for China and the U.S. in orbit is another question.