The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which broke out in February 2022, marked the latest episode of the use of warfare as a tool to accelerate change in the world order. But two other events disturbed Asia and the Middle East: U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022 and the Israel-Hamas conflict, which broke out in October 2023. People began to worry about potential interplay across three war zones. Such a prospect has become more prominent in recent months, and may be worthy of note by historians.

The longer the war drags on, the more variables there will be. Bearing this in mind, Volodymyr Zelenskyy may modify his tough stance against giving up land and seek more pragmatic ways to end the war, such as a truce conditional on NATO or European Union membership.

The “with us or against us" diplomatic approach has polarizing effects, particularly in the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And the global outrage against Russia’s aggression and critiques of China’s tacit support suggests that Putin’s actions will be viewed as a moral failure akin to past fascist regimes.

For the Ukrainian president to consummate his victory plan he must either wait for or create favorable external conditions. The plan is closely intertwined with the evolving dynamics of relations between China, the United States and Russia.

Ukraine’s advance into Russian territory may pose new risks, including escalation of the war and further complication of the peace process. The aim may be to create a “land-for-land” negotiation in the future, but this may not work. Peace cannot be achieved as long as one side believes it can win. It only happens when one of the warring parties is exhausted.

China’s relationship with Russia puts its relationship at risk with the West, and is perhaps the most significant challenge in China-U.S. relations.

Two years ago, I outlined eight lessons from the Ukraine War. And though I warned that it was too early to be confident about any predictions, they have held up

Despite their positive aspects, globalization, multi-polarization and technological advancement come with pronounced negatives that pose challenges to the post-Cold War world order. The only way forward is for the West to cooperate with China and engage in active and candid dialogue.

The wisdom in China’s major-country diplomacy serves as a rudder in China-Russia relations. It is also the anchor that stabilizes relations with others, including the United States and European Union.

American involvement in the Ukraine war is partly driven by moral imperatives, but the deeper reason is concern for its own future security. NATO’s reliance on Washington could increase as Russian power is drained, but it will be difficult to change the tactical balance on the battlefield.