The United States, sees strategic parallels between the situations in Ukraine and Taiwan. It thinks lessons learned from Ukraine may serve as a model for dealing with China on Taiwan. But the differences are significant. To “Ukrainize” Taiwan is to provoke war rather than foster peace.

The occupation of Ukraine by hostile Russian forces was one of the primary global focuses last year. The great powers entangled in the conflict touch almost every region of the international community and have pushed Russia and China closer together.

The United States lacks the strength and influence to simultaneously contain both China and Russia. As with the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, its policies will place it in strategic overdraft and lead to more strategic errors.

The thought of full-blown war with China has become mainstream in the aftermath of Russia’s Ukraine invasion. A potent mix of simmering animosity and economic concerns have created a heated climate that both sides need to take a step back from before the U.S. or China falls victim to the intoxicating pull of escalation.

It is clear that China has little chance of changing Russia’s hard-line position in its war with Ukraine. Nor can it solve the “Russia problem” in the West. It can only act as it sees fit to safeguard the interests of the Chinese people.

As the U.S. seeks to advance its position and strengthen the U.S. dollar global dominance, it is also facing challenges and an anti-hegemonic sentiment from other states. Events such as the war in Ukraine, tensions between the U.S., Russia, and China, as well as new strategic partnerships developed between China and Europe, Latin America, and Africa, are driving forces in the shift of balance of power to non-Western nations.

This year’s G20 summit was haunted by the war in Ukraine, changing the complexion of nearly all interactions at the meeting. A sober assessment of the situation between Taiwan and China leaves much room for speculation about how an escalated conflict there might affect the world’s powers at large.

China has not taken sides over the Russia-Ukraine conflict for good reason. It is Russia’s strategic partner and Ukraine’s largest trading partner. At the same time, China and the West are not enemies. We must coexist despite our differences.

To answer, it is essential to place Russia’s motives in historical context. Since the conflict is essentially between Russia and NATO, the West must be willing to negotiate. Otherwise the struggle will be protracted, with no end in sight.

Ukrainians have paid dearly for Russia’s incursion, which most of the world believes was not justified. The Ukrainian people know they are fighting for their homes, and that’s what will ultimately tilt the balance on the battlefield.