Francesca Giovannini is executive director of the Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science & Internati

When a major country moves unilaterally to increase its own security, it triggers a greater sense of insecurity in others. The recent move by the United States to adjust its nuclear response strategy is having exactly that effect, along with a return of Cold War thinking.

Nuclear deterrence has been a defining characteristic of international security for nearly a century now. Already having weathered one Cold War, could China push the U.S. over the edge towards an all-out arms race in the 21st Century?

Tokyo has questioned the reliability of U.S. nuclear protection and has put the issue high on the agenda. Lasting peace in East Asia, however, cannot be achieved simply through nuclear power. The way forward is to focus on common security efforts and include all parties in the discussion.

It is essential that China and the United States avoid a nuclear arms race. The recent stabilization of relations is a prerequisite for bilateral nuclear dialogue. Such a dialogue, in turn, will help maintain not only strategic stability but also healthy overall ties.

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes more sophisticated, its impact on international stability also increases. China and the U.S. should draw from historical arms treaties and adopt a cooperative approach to regulating AI to prevent conflict and promote global stability.

A recent IAEA report says that Japan’s plan to dump radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean meets safety standards. Not everyone is so glib. In navigating the controversy, China can play a positive role.

Even as the whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg of the Pentagon Papers passed away, his second secret remains hushed.

As China continues to rapidly increase its nuclear arsenal, the United States and its allies are exercising strategic response options. But ultimately, it’s imperative that China curb its nuclear buildup to avoid an unwinnable three-way arms race.

The most likely scenario for a degree of success is that Iran stops short of building a weapon. This would pressure the U.S. while keeping strategic risks under control. But prospects for trouble are looming this year. All parties will have to work for the best while preparing for the worst.