Russia has quietly become a major player in Southeast Asia by arming and supporting many of China’s rivals. But strategic alignments in the region may soon change following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leading to a growing dependence on China.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been costly, and Russia has reportedly requested assistance from China. The U.S. and its Western allies have also opened dialogue with Chinese officials, and Beijing now faces a fork in the road and whichever route it chooses will define international relations for a long time to come.

China may be on the rocks as it attempts to sort through its options and navigate the challenge that Russia’s invasion/war with Ukraine has created for them.

China’s close strategic ties to Russia make it hard to come out in full-throated condemnation of the violence in Ukraine along with much of the world. Yet there are actionable methods that China can use to try and help save lives of innocent citizens.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict undermines the prospects for prosperity and security around the world — and that includes China, whose economic development recent years had depended upon a stable external strategic environment.

Arab countries in particular will play an important role as event in the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupt economic patterns. They may see an opportunity to regain stature in the international arena.

China-Russia ties have upper limits, which are defined by the interests of the Chinese people. Relations are constrained to areas that do no harm. No relationship should be allowed to take the people’s interests hostage.

Two classic conundrums are at play in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, both of which are making the problem worse and could lead to a new cold war. China’s approach provides a way out.

George Canning, who presided over the British foreign policy in the early nineteenth century, once famously said, “Europe's domain extends to the shores of the Atlantic, England’s begins there.”

Now that the Western powers have imposed sweeping economic and financial sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, many are asking whether China’s non-participation will undermine their effectiveness. One should also ask whether the rich countries can do more for the poor people in many developing countries who are the collateral damage of the war and the sanctions.