Donald Trump’s ascension to the presidency in 2017 will also make him the new commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces, with a large say over the question of war and peace in the next four years. While some see his strongman style as reminiscent of Theodore Roosevelt’s Gunboat Diplomacy, there are too many known unknowns about Trump’s defense policies to predict how he would react in the event of war or a perceived threat.

A president-elect’s promises and actual policies are always two different things. “Putting America first”, Trump’s chief consideration, means that a quick expansion of the U.S. role in international affairs doesn’t look likely in the near future. But remarkable shrinkage in U.S. diplomatic and military activities in the world will not happen very soon either.

Compared with diplomatic issues, the new administration is facing more challenges in domestic affairs, which is also more critical for Trump’s re-election four years from now. For a Trump administration, with the edge of the Republican-controlled Congress, it is urgent to promote domestic policies and reforms. The alliance system, therefore, is not among the top priorities or issues, and its institutional nature insulates it from the whims of a single individual.

Under Duterte’s administration, the Philippines are moving toward major policy shifts, particularly in regards to U.S. and China relations. China is an emerging outbound investor with a demonstrated financial, technological, and engineering capacity to accomplish major infrastructure projects, such as railways, which can have a transformative impact on Philippine economic development. The U.S. has become a quieter ally in the region, and other regional states have long been diversifying both their economic and security partners to spread risk and to avoid getting entangled in big power tussles. Duterte is following these initiatives now, as well.

Alignment and bloc politics would lead to standoff and confrontation, and would be harmful to regional and global peace, while the non-alignment policy conforms to the trend of the times and the fundamental interests of China. Therefore, non-alignment is the natural and inevitable choice of the country. If the US seeks to cooperate with China and Russia, all parties would benefit.

The fine momentum of deepening China-US cooperation in various areas will inevitably extend into the upcoming new US presidency. Donald Trump and his team, who have won the election under the banner of “Make America Great Again”, should see that joining hands with China in the Asia-Pacific will result in a win-win scenario for both counties.

“Qualified” or not, the billionaire and reality TV star struck a chord with American voters, and his ideas on taxes, medical reform and other issues will evolve as the president-elect mends fences with his own party and develops his style of governance.

It remains to be seen whether the Trump-led US will be more self-confident, or more suspicious; continue embracing (though no longer enthusiastically) globalization, or nervously shrink back. The notion that businessman Trump will be more interested in cutting deals, and that his foreign policy will forsake persistent American values and criteria, is overly naive.

What we are witnessing isn’t necessarily a ‘Duterte wave’ of defections to China at the expense of America. More likely, it is a temporary recalibration on the part certain Southeast Asian states that are unsure of American commitment to the region and eager to avoid direct confrontation with China, which in turn is offering large-scale investment and trade deals in exchange for strategic acquiescence. China is offering lucrative packages of technical skills and soft loans for turbo-charged infrastructure projects. But, it remains to be seen how far this rebalancing will go, as other nations in the region shift away from China.

China has accepted some gains from the world order established by the United States, but they disapprove of how the structure reflects exclusively American values and is buttressed “by a military alignment, which does not take into consideration the security interests of others.” Some Chinese commentators can also see a great benefit to aligning with Russia to offset the U.S.; however, uncertainty about regional powers and IGO influence remains pivotal to the current great-power structure.