When Chinese President Xi Jinping met with US President Joe Biden last fall, some interpreted it as a return to engagement. In fact, it heralded only a minor détente, not a major change in policy.

While some good things have emerged, the foundation is not yet strong enough. Relations may be warming but no one is scorched by the heat. The overall temperature remains cool. Washington won’t be changing its policy of competition, and political rhetoric during the coming U.S. presidential election year will only add complexity.

The Biden-Xi meeting in San Francisco was undoubtedly going to lead to new developments in cross-Pacific relations, but one month after the meeting the overall climate between the two rivals has yet to change.

The recent EU-China Summit marked a cautious step forward in their relationship, underlining a growing willingness to constructively engage. While substantive policy changes remain elusive, both sides acknowledged concerns and showed openness to dialogue, hinting at a potential path for future negotiations and trust-building.

Renewed attempts to cooperate seem to be bearing fruit recently, but these successes must now pass through the fire of a divided America. The hard-won cooperation potential may well be interrupted by the election cycle in 2024, magnified by an increase in negative rhetoric regarding China.

After several years of intense competition, the resilience of China-U.S. relations ultimately showed itself in 2023. While anti-China rhetoric is bound to surface during the coming political election year — primarily from hawkish Republicans — many points of consensus are clear.

Trilateral cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea seems to have solidified recently, although they have not announced a formal alliance. But differences in their views on China and deep-rooted frictions will likely hinder the ongoing pace of concerted action.

One month out from the Xi-Biden talks in San Francisco, the world may have witnessed a major turning point in China’s international affairs - if the U.S. plays along.

Recent high-level dialogue has set the stage for progress. Yet, the strategies employed by China and Europe show that a transformation of the international order is likely to be a prolonged process.

The statesman recognized the inevitability of China’s rise and suggested how the United States should handle it. The two countries have the capability to bring peace and progress to the world, as well as the ability to destroy it all. Which will they choose?