As a result of the resounding victories of right-wing parties, leadership crises in France and Germany and the potential re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission, geopolitical factors are expected to feature prominently in the European Union’s policy orientation. As its defense toolbox in trade and investment is enhanced, attempts to mix China-EU economic interdependence with political and security issues may increase.
On June 9, voting to elect members of the European Parliament concluded. The pro-European, center-right European People’s Party has retained its dominance, but far-right parties noted for their Euroscepticism have made significant gains. In France and Germany, two main players within the EU, far-right parties have emerged as the largest and second-largest political groups. This political shift to the right has plunged leaders of major EU countries into a trust crisis that threatens to undermine the consensus between Europe and China on major global issues, such as climate change, globalization and world peace.
Rise of the far right
In Europe, the shift to the right is most evident in the rise of far-right political parties, which now pose a serious threat to the dominance of mainstream parties. From Italy to Hungary, from Slovakia to the Netherlands, these parties have led coalition governments as the largest political force. They are also part of the coalition governments in Finland, Croatia and the Czech Republic. In the European Parliament election this year, center-right and liberal parties lost a significant number of seats; in contrast, far-right parties, led by the European Conservatives and Reformists Party (ECR) and Identity and Democracy Group (ID), won a total of 130 seats, up by 12 from the previous election. If the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Viktor Orban’s Freedom Party (Hungary), which share the same far-right ideologies but are not affiliated with any parliamentary group, are taken into account, far-right parties would have more than 150 seats (20 percent of the 720 seats) — the second-largest voting bloc after the center-right EPP parliamentary group in the European Parliament.
In the European Parliament election, far-right parties won more seats than the ruling parties in many countries, including France, Germany, Belgium, Austria and the Netherlands. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally won 31.5 percent of the vote, while Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance (14.5 percent) was less than half of that. In Germany, the AfD won 15.6 percent of the votes, second only to the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (30.3 percent) and higher than Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (14.1 percent). In Belgium, two far-right Flemish parties gained the most and third-most votes. Both advocate more administrative independence for the northern Dutch-speaking regions in the country and harsher immigration policies. They stand against climate change policies.
Although mainstream parties such as the EPP, SPD and Renew Europe still hold the majority, far-right parties have managed to bring immigration and climate change to the forefront of European politics, despite their lack of unity. Their constant emphasis on sluggish economic growth and the cost-of-living crisis makes it difficult for major European political leaders to ignore these issues in their decision-making. This shift toward the right is well underway across the political landscape of Europe.
European leadership crisis
Following the recent election, the influence of far-right parties has spread from small and peripheral countries to central regions in Europe. In light of his party’s heavy defeat in elections for the European Parliament and under heavy pressure from the far-right National Rally, President Macron decided on June 9 to dissolve the National Assembly and launch two rounds of national elections starting from the end of June to early July to form a new National Assembly and elect a new prime minister.
The center-right Republican Party has forged an alliance with the RN, setting a precedent in modern French political history in which a mainstream party allies with a far-right party. Current opinion polls show that with an approval rating of 34 percent, the RN could take the lead in the French parliamentary election. In contrast, Macron’s party earned just 19 percent. If the poll prediction materialized, the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, president of the RN, would serve as the new prime minister and form a coalition with Macron, which would significantly decrease the president’s influence on economic and social issues.
In Germany, the “traffic light” coalition (SPD, Free Democratic Party and the Greens), led by Chancellor Scholz fared even worse than Macon’s party in the European Parliament election, with SDP recording the worst vote share in its history. However, Scholz refused to dissolve the Bundestag and hold elections, stressing that the German and French political systems are different and that the ruling coalition will stay in power until its term ends.
In the United Kingdom, the general election kicked off on June 4. According to the latest polling by YouGov, the ruling Conservative Party lags behind the opposition Labour Party by 19 points (18 percent vs. 37 percent). The Conservative Party (19 percent) was even worse off than Reform UK (previously Brexit Party). The Conservatives might be booted from power after 14 years running the government, and Rishi Sunak stepped down.
The re-election of von der Leyen as European Commission president seems relatively straightforward. She is the candidate of choice for the EPP, the largest political party group in the European Parliament. She convincingly transformed Macron’s and Scholz’s perception of her, won the favor of the Biden administration in the United States and was widely expected to win the vote of confidence in the European Council in late June and in the European Parliament in July.
After President of the European Council Charles Michel announced his resignation, former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa will take up the seat in December. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas will succeed Josep Borrell Fontelles as the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
Impacts on China-EU relations
As a result of the resounding victories of right-wing parties, leadership crises in France and Germany and the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission, geopolitical factors are expected to feature prominently in the European Union’s policy orientation. As its defense toolbox in trade and investment is enhanced, attempts to mix China-EU economic ties with political and security issues may increase, and the de-risking initiative proposed by von der Leyen may continue in the long run. China should be fully prepared.
Additionally, under the pressure of far-right parties, the European Union may adjust its stated climate goals and transfer its emissions reduction responsibility to other countries through tariffs and non-tariff measures. All these developments will undoubtedly undermine the already scarce China-EU consensus on global issues.
