As the world prepares for Donald Trump to return to the White House, the shadow of his first presidency looms large. The legacy of Trump 1.0 — characterized by unilateralism, protectionism and the erosion of multilateral institutions — has fostered what could be called the Trump mindset. This mindset entails analyzing Trump’s actions during his first term, predicting his likely behavior in a second term and adapting policies to accommodate or preempt those actions. While this might seem like a pragmatic approach, it risks falling into what I call the “Trump mindset trap.”
The trap lies in its self-reinforcing nature. By assuming Trump will double down on his first-term strategies, the international community may inadvertently validate him and encourage even more extreme behavior. This could manifest in decisions such as further withdrawals from multilateral agreements, intensified trade protectionism in the guise of “America First,” transactional security arrangements demanding protection fees and a continuation of the myth of U.S. exceptionalism in international law, upheld by hegemonic dominance. Such an approach doesn’t only react to Trump but plays into his hands, reinforcing the very behavior the world seeks to counter.
To avoid this trap, the international community must break free of the reactionary and individualistic tendencies that the Trump mindset engenders. Instead, nations should adopt proactive, collective strategies rooted in shared principles and long-term interests. Here are five key areas where this shift is essential:
1. Replace individual surrenderism with collective solidarity
In Trump’s first term some nations took a submissive stance, seeking to align themselves with U.S. policies for fear of retaliation or exclusion. For instance, leaders such as Argentina’s Javier Milei have embraced ideologies that echo Trump’s populism, signaling a form of individual surrender to his will. This approach weakens the global response to unilateralism and leaves nations vulnerable to divide-and-conquer tactics.
Instead, the international community must foster collective solidarity. Through alliances such as the European Union, ASEAN or even ad hoc coalitions, nations can present a unified front that resists unilateral pressure. By standing together, countries can maintain their sovereignty while promoting a rules-based international order.
2. Substitute “America First” with mutual benefits and win-win cooperation
Trump’s “America First" doctrine has led to a resurgence of zero-sum thinking, particularly in trade and economic policy. This approach undermines global economic stability and fosters distrust among nations.
To counter this, countries should champion mutual benefits and win-win cooperation. Initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative and regional trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) demonstrate the potential for inclusive growth that benefits all parties involved. By prioritizing shared prosperity over protectionism, nations can build resilience against isolationist policies.
3. Swap the “protection fee” model for shared security
Trump’s transactional approach to security — demanding increased financial contributions from allies in exchange for U.S. military support — has weakened the trust and cohesion of traditional alliances. NATO, for instance, faced unprecedented strain during his first term.
A shift toward shared security is essential. This involves moving beyond financial transactions to emphasize mutual commitments and collective defense. The revitalization of multilateral security frameworks such as the UN, coupled with greater investment in peacekeeping and conflict prevention, can create a more stable and cooperative global security environment.
4. Replace hegemonic exceptionalism with a code of integrity
American exceptionalism, underpinned by hegemonic dominance, has often been used to justify unilateral actions that flout international law. From withdrawing from the Paris agreement to imposing unilateral sanctions, Trump’s first term epitomized this approach.
To counteract this, nations must uphold a code of integrity and accountability. Strengthening institutions such as the United Nations and the International Criminal Court, and ensuring adherence to international agreements will reinforce the principle that no country is above the law. By committing to these norms, the international community can delegitimize exceptionalist behavior.
5. Exchange trade protectionism for a common market
Trade protectionism, a Trump hallmark, has disrupted global supply chains and exacerbated economic tensions. The imposition of tariffs and the renegotiation of trade agreements have created uncertainty for businesses and consumers alike.
In response, nations should prioritize the development of common markets that promote free trade and economic integration. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are promising examples of how regional cooperation can drive economic growth and reduce dependence on protectionist policies. By investing in these frameworks, countries can foster a more interconnected and resilient global economy.
6. Avoid China initiative” efforts and promote academic exchanges
Although the idea flopped, Trump, during his first term in office, claimed to be a big believer in the “China initiative,” a program designed to root out Chinese-born scholars who supposedly retained ties with the Chinese government and who would commit to espionage to benefit Beijing.
Regardless of whether Trump would rebrand and reinstitute such policies, China and other nations need to strongly promote university faculty and student exchanges. This and similar people-to-people exchanges, will open the door to academic and personal relationships that benefit both countries. Lessons learned, research shared and friendships made strengthen global bonds and demonstrate mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.
Conclusion
Avoiding the Trump mindset trap requires more than just reacting to the former president’s potential return to power. It demands a fundamental shift in how the international community approaches global governance. By prioritizing collective solidarity, mutual benefits, shared security, integrity and economic integration, nations can resist the pull of unilateralism and build a more inclusive and stable international order. The challenge is significant, but so is the opportunity to redefine the future of global cooperation.
