Views differ on what triggered the current conflict. But whatever the pros and cons of NATO expansion, the conclusion must be that China, not Russia, is the greater long-term, structural and potentially lethal challenger to America.

The phrase “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow” has been heard frequently in Taiwan since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. But separatists on the island are not sure the United States would come to their rescue if Beijing moved toward reunification.

Differences over the rules for world affairs will not be resolved easily and won’t be resolved in favor the U.S. Countries are interdependent, and a divided world serves no one’s best interests.

The Ukraine crisis has demolished many boundaries. It was out of control from the beginning, since Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. are all unwilling or unable to compromise. Time will tell, though it may not indicate which side to take.

Economic globalization — with more participants — is in Europe’s interest. Following the lead of the United States and kicking Russia and its allies out of the international system will only cause global fragmentation.

The crisis in Ukraine quickly led China-observers to draw comparisons to the similar provocations that exist in the Taiwan Strait regarding Taiwanese sovereignty and Beijing’s desire to take control of the island. The way Russia’s offensive is unfolding can lead to sobering takeaways for all sides party to Taiwan and China’s standoff.

Europe’s fear, exacerbated by heavy dependence on Russia for energy, has been exposed more clearly by the conflict. Along with other factors, the fear is likely to result in a stricter and more selective EU approach to China.

Changes have already come to the nature of war, but non-state actors will change international relations more broadly in the future, becoming an important force affecting the evolution of the international order and changing the balance of power.

While the United States and its Western allies might wish that China would adopt their position and help to mediate an end to the crisis, China has crafted a stance that conforms to its own interests. It simply doesn’ t have the influence other countries may imagine.

Washington might believe that Russia’s poor performance in Ukraine will make China think twice about using force, or that China will be constrained by the CPC’s 20th National Congress. But this is a grave misunderstanding.