Europe’s fear, exacerbated by heavy dependence on Russia for energy, has been exposed more clearly by the conflict. Along with other factors, the fear is likely to result in a stricter and more selective EU approach to China.

Changes have already come to the nature of war, but non-state actors will change international relations more broadly in the future, becoming an important force affecting the evolution of the international order and changing the balance of power.

While the United States and its Western allies might wish that China would adopt their position and help to mediate an end to the crisis, China has crafted a stance that conforms to its own interests. It simply doesn’ t have the influence other countries may imagine.

Washington might believe that Russia’s poor performance in Ukraine will make China think twice about using force, or that China will be constrained by the CPC’s 20th National Congress. But this is a grave misunderstanding.

The continuing attacks on Ukraine should be a point where global leaders should be able to align on creating a solution - but outside of a vacuum, tense relations and posturing are getting in the way.

The U.S. and India are currently in a sort of golden age of relations - both of them using the other to build up capital against China’s influence. However, India’s Cold War history with Russia leaves it on shaky terms with the U.S. amid the Ukraine crisis, and adds an unforeseen wrinkle to America’s best-laid plans for the region.

The U.S. is currently attempting to lump China with Russia, but the conflict in Ukraine is not likely to change America’s competitive strategy toward China in the long run. The U.S. will continue to focus on the Indo-Pacific region.

The Russia-Ukraine War is driving global change in both the economic and security domains. China and the United States will face a different world than existed before the Russian military operation that began on February 24.

Russia’s deep integration in the global energy market is the result of a long and complex interaction of many actors in the value chain. Therefore, so-called moral clarity will require precise, case-by-case analysis of real-world facts. The outcome remains to be seen.

The Ukraine conflict will hit low-income developing countries with particular ferocity. These countries are not in Europe, nor are they involved in the war. Yet their people will suffer soaring energy costs, hunger, poverty and financial ruin.