The Ukraine war has put China in a bind. As a friend of both Russia and Ukraine, China has no desire to pick a side. On the contrary, conventional Chinese wisdom dictates that, when two friends fight each other, the primary objective must be to end the conflict through mediation. While China’s balanced stance has aroused more than a little suspicion, it could end up hastening the end of the war – and easing tensions with the United States.

Russian President Vladimir Putin thought he could quickly capture Kyiv and replace Ukraine’s government. Whether he was misled by poor intelligence or by his own fantasies about history, his “smash and grab” failed in the face of effective Ukrainian resistance. He then turned to a brutal bombardment of cities like Mariupol and Kharkiv to terrorize the civilian population into submission – as he had previously done in Grozny and Aleppo. The tragic upshot is that Ukraine’s heroic resistance has been accompanied by increasing civilian suffering.

As the global community turns against an increasingly isolated Russia, China’s silence on the topic becomes more easily interpreted as support for Putin’s war. The untenable stance will be sure to drive more friction between the West and China and puts China’s foreign interests in further jeopardy.

China has remained relatively quiet on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to the annoyance of the West. There may be several explanations for Beijing’s aloofness.

Punishments of Russia cut both ways for the West and may even be self-defeating. The European and U.S. economies are suffering a backlash in rising energy prices, shrinking corporate profits and inflation-induced economic hardships.

American policy in the Middle East has Saudi Arabia thinking about selling oil to China in Chinese yuan rather than U.S. dollars. The shift would weaken the dollar’s dominant position in the global oil market.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted the governance of the northern region, posing a threat to economic cooperation and risking military escalation. Changes to the framework and their effect on Russia are worthy of close attention going forward.

While the issue is complex for China and the EU, one attainable step would be to cooperate on humanitarian relief for Ukraine — delivering medical and sanitary supplies. They should also press for a cease-fire.

In their upcoming summit, China and Europe should steadfastly oppose any kind of new cold war. With the Ukraine conflict increasing the risk of decoupling, the need for joint responsibility to prevent a new cold war is clear.

Russia has quietly become a major player in Southeast Asia by arming and supporting many of China’s rivals. But strategic alignments in the region may soon change following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leading to a growing dependence on China.