The most prominent characteristic of the incoming U.S. president is uncertainty. China, especially, must drop all illusions and prepare to compete so that it can sit tight in the fishing boat and steer it to safety. The wind and waves are likely to rise under a more experienced — and possibly less restrained — American chief executive.

When he enters the White House, Donald Trump is going to need a resolution of the Ukraine conflict. But Russia’s decision-makers are unlikely to yield to him. Even if Trump got his way, the underlying issues between Russia and the West would persist.

As the world looks back into a turbulent 2024, the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors underscores the urgent need for renewed global efforts to mitigate nuclear risks. In the face of rising geopolitical tensions and technological advancements, we must revive strategic dialogues and prioritize diplomatic solutions, following President Kennedy’s example, to ensure global security and address the existential threats posed by nuclear weapons and AI-enhanced warfare. And this call demands leadership.

Middle Eastern nations are capitalizing on Donald Trump’s penchant for unprincipled, no-limits deal-making, even though he has yet to assume office. These countries are scrambling to position themselves for the high-stakes negotiations that lie ahead.

From Shinzo Abe’s concept of escaping the postwar regime to Shigeru Ishiba’s idea of postwar political settlement, the trajectory of Japan’s political evolution is becoming increasingly apparent. For both China and the United States, responding to a Japan that embraces strategic autonomy poses a significant strategic challenge.

Increased cooperation among Quad countries and partners in the Indo-Pacific region poses a challenge for Chinese diplomacy. The new U.S. president will not only inherit the security framework built under Joe Biden, but is likely to harden it even further. Thus, China has reason to worry that tensions will rise and that new hot spots will be created.

Former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s call for the U.S. to prioritize aid to Ukraine over Taiwan drew scrutiny, especially given rising cross-Strait tensions. While Tsai’s stance may momentarily shift Trump’s administration's attention in East Asia, it risks undermining his likely focus on ending the costly Ukraine conflict and confronting China more aggressively, with Taiwan as a key flashpoint.

Threats of violence are pushing the region to the brink. Israel said it would exact a “deadly and heavy” toll for any Iranian attack. In turn, Iran promised to “retaliate tenfold,” and its hardliners want to lift the ban on developing nuclear weapons. Lines are blurring that were once seen as inviolable.

The new Japanese prime minister wants to reassert Japan’s standing as a regional power, which will challenge the expectations of Washington elites and further rattle a region that is seeking to skirt the dynamics of great power competition.

Such a conflict would not align with American interests, as there would be no assurance of success and it would be ethically unjustified. War between Israel and Iran could spiral into an uncontrollable and devastating Armageddon in the Middle East.