U.S. policy ultimately will be defined by Israel. With Donald Trump in the White House, the Middle East will become even more vulnerable, and the security situation may erode. Saudi Arabia may not get the security guarantees it wants from the United States, and Iran will continue to be in the picture.
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, DC, on February 4, 2025. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP)
The United States is the most influential external actor, and Trump’s policy toward the Middle East will produce new impacts on the region. Israel, Donald Trump’s character and the American establishment are the three main factors affecting U.S. policy in the region. It is expected that Trump will support Israel’s efforts to maximize its territorial and security interests and will coerce Gulf Cooperation Council countries economically while maintaining limited engagement with the region. This policy will prove to be detrimental for regional security and the sovereignty of individual countries.
The first factor affecting U.S. policy in the region is, of course, Israel. History tells that no U.S. president can escape being pro-Israel because of powerful pro-Israel lobbyists, and Trump is no exception. He could go even further in this regard as witnessed in his appointments to key foreign policy positions and on Middle East issues. Some that come to mind are Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and new Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee. All of them are staunch supporters of Israel. He also has a Jewish family member — Jared Kushner. Trump’s cabinet will obviously be pro-Israel.
The second factor is Trump’s personal character. According to books about Trump’s management experience, he always applies maximum pressure and raises his price before any bargain is concluded. His previous business experience, his first term policies and his practices over the past month all indicate that he will follow the old path in the Middle East — and in other parts of the world as well.
The third factor is the U.S. establishment. Trump will be one of the most powerful presidents in U.S. history because Republicans not only have the presidency but also a slim majority in both houses of the Congress. Of course, the establishment is always there in U.S. domestic politics, including elites in economic, military, media and financial communities, and they will have their input in Trump’s policymaking.
Trump’s Middle East policy could end up being the result of interactions between all three factors.
First, Trump will follow Israel’s push to construct a new regional order. In 2024, as a result of the spillover of the lates round of Israeli-Palestinian violence, the Middle East had seen a major changes in its geopolitical landscape featuring the shrinking of the “front of resistance” — although resistance will always be there so long as oppression and occupation are there.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent talk about a new Middle East suggests that he will take advantage of the latest changes to maximize Israel’s territorial interests in Palestine, Syria and Lebanon and to legitimatize what it has gained already. Israel will also maximize its security interests by further weakening the institutions of sub-state entities, namely the various resistance forces, and even Iran. Israel will also try to establish diplomatic relations with more Arab countries while denying a two-state solution for the Palestinians.
Trump needs more knowledge of Middle East affairs and some political sensitivity as well. He is likely to implement his Middle East policy along the course set by Israel and to help Israel achieve the above-mentioned goals. Trump’s recent proposal to displace Palestinians in Gaza, as well as U.S. pressure on Hamas and Hezbollah, reflect Israel’s vision of a new Middle East order.
Second, Trump will try to extract economic benefits from GCC countries through implicit pressure. The GCC remains a very important part of global politics, but its members’ real relevance in Trump’s eyes lies in their massive sovereignty funds and market potential for U.S. products. Driven by his MAGA ambitions, Trump regards the GCC as an ideal market and target for investment.
Trump will try to draw more direct investment from the GCC by implicit pressure. According to Trump himself, the reason he chose Saudi Arabia as his first destination for an overseas visit was simply that Saudi promised to invest $500 billion in the U.S. at the beginning of his first term in 2017. Responding to a similar call from Trump after his inauguration in January, the crown prince promised another $600 billion of investment. Besides investments, Trump will also likely ask GCC countries to buy U.S. products.
Eight years ago, Saudi had intended, with the $500 billion, to get U.S. security commitments, which had proved elusive all through Trump’s first term. The U.S. did not respond sufficiently to Saudi’s request that it provide shelter. Similarly, Saudi’s promise of investment early this year is largely a reaction to a kind of implicit pressure. The rationale behind these moves is simply that Trump could cause security, political or economic damage by withdrawing U.S. commitments.
Third, Trump will likely continue the U.S. retreat in the region in general. It is least likely that Trump will increase strategic input in the region. He used to think that military involvement there was too costly, even though the American establishment would like to reduce the U.S. footprint so that strategic resources in the Asia-Pacific to contain China can be reinforced.
Israel, however, will remain the top priority in U.S. policy. It is expected that the United States will increase its military and strategic presence for as long as Israel needs it. If Israel is under threat , the U.S. will have to enhance its presence.
The implications of Trump’s policy will be multi-faceted but will be destructive in many ways:
First, Trump’s policy will undermine regional security in general. The Palestine issue is at the core, and in some lesser degree, so is the territorial issue between Israel and other neighboring Arab countries. Without a reasonable two-state resolution, the region will not see stability and peace. The efforts of Israel and the U.S. to redefine the regional order actually means more encroachment upon the territorial and security interests of Palestinians and neighboring Arab countries.
At the regional level, efforts to counter oppression and occupation are always the other side of the story. Pressure and military solutions will never be sustainable. Temporary compromise through the acceptance of humiliation always means the possible incubation of another, even more fierce, insurgency or intifada. At the domestic level, sympathy for Palestinians may affect the political legitimacy of governments of the region. Thus, the suspension of the Palestinian’s legitimate causes may undermine domestic stability at any time.
Second, Trump’s policies could undermine security in the Gulf region in particular. Israel’s efforts to maximize its security interests are meant to further weaken Iran. Trump’s maximum pressure policy will drive the U.S. to adopt a more radical policy toward Iran. The new dynamics are likely to provoke Iran to adopt countermeasures. Despite changes in the region, Iran will remain a critical power with a meaningful military buildup. As a nation with pride, Iran will not succumb to humiliation. The interactions between the two sides could make the Gulf even more dangerous.
Third, Trump’s policies will undermine the economic sovereignty of countries in the region. GCC countries are seeing a growing trend toward multi-polarization. Their own future development and prosperity will depend on keeping pace with this trend. According to GCC scholars, relations with America are valued, but these people are also well aware that business relations with other major economies are indispensable. Trump’s implicit pressure to gain investments and markets will affect their independent choice of business partners and their ability to safeguard their economic interests as well.
In short, Trump’s Middle East policy will be defined in some way by his personal character and business approach. In some other ways, the establishment will carry the most weight. But all of it will be defined by Israel. The United States under a Trump presidency will make the Middle East more vulnerable, and the security situation in the region may become even worse.
