No matter who wins on Nov. 5 — Kamala Harris or Donald Trump — the coming vote will impact the world. China and the United States have a shared responsibility to navigate the problems of climate, economic development and conflict, and constructive efforts on both sides will make all the difference. This essay explores some possible election outcomes that will affect China.

Israel’s Iran reprisals aren't over. A broader attack may ensue in cooperation with the United States, while the war-weary, ailing region would prefer to focus on economic development with China.

When President Joe Biden announced he would not seek re-election, American politics suffered a seismic shock. The Democratic Party’s substitution of Vice President Kamala Harris to face former president Donald Trump upended the apple cart. While Biden had been slipping, Harris’s momentum has made the outcome too close to call.

If Vice President Kamala Harris is elected president in November, she will confront a range of severe challenges, including extremism, a Congress likely to be controlled by Republicans, a debt-ridden government, the decline of U.S. power and ongoing international conflicts. Change won’t come easy.

The upcoming presidential election in the United States could significantly impact China-U.S. relations, though it’s uncertain how each candidate will ultimately approach Beijing. Neither major candidate is perceived as being willing to improve the bilateral relationship at this point, so things could very well get worse.

J.D. Vance’s stance on the American struggle in order to achieve the American dream holds parallels to his China policy, and Washington’s China policy more broadly. Americans’ views on China are similarly paradoxical, as they see China as an adversary but do not prioritize it as one.

If Harris, the current vice president of the United States, is elected president in November, her administration will likely not make radical changes to America’s existing China policies, although some nuanced adjustments could occur in areas such as combating anti-Asian racism and fostering economic stability. Those hoping for improvements should remain realistic about the slim odds of that happening.

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election takes an unexpected turn with Kamala Harris stepping in as the Democratic candidate and Donald Trump showing strong poll numbers, there have been a variety of speculations surrounding future U.S. policies toward China. As in past presidential campaigns, adopting a "tough on China" stance tends to be a winning strategy with voters, so we can likely expect increased critiques in the coming months. But no matter which candidate wins in November, China policies are not likely to change very much from the past two administrations.