America’s China policy, characterized by major-power competition, has had a subtle yet significant influence on the Taiwan question. The next U.S. administration, whether led by Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, is likely make changes. The devil will be in the details.

Former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s call for the U.S. to prioritize aid to Ukraine over Taiwan drew scrutiny, especially given rising cross-Strait tensions. While Tsai’s stance may momentarily shift Trump’s administration's attention in East Asia, it risks undermining his likely focus on ending the costly Ukraine conflict and confronting China more aggressively, with Taiwan as a key flashpoint.

In small but steady degrees, the United States is undercutting its stated commitment to “one China” by subtly modifying its words. The meanings it has added in diplomatic discourse do not promote confidence that it will continue to honor the agreements it has made. On the contrary, U.S. actions belie those agreements.

Derek Grossman is a senior defense analyst at RAND focused on a range of national security policy and Indo-Pacific security issues. He closely tracks intensifying U.S.-China competition throughout the region, including Asia and Oceania. Grossman was interviewed recently by Wang Zhijin, a reporter for China-US Focus, at the recent Xiangshan Forum in Beijing.

Recently elected leader Lai Ching-te is turning toward open advocacy for independence. But his populist agitation is straining relations with the United States, dragging down economic development and potentially compromising peace and stability in the region.

Three evils threaten to prevent the peaceful reunification of the Chinese people. Many on both sides hope for a respectful resolution of the Taiwan issue. This will require a comprehensive and nuanced approach by key stakeholders on the island and in Beijing, as well as the international community.

While Lai Ching-te’s victory in Taiwan’s elections was expected, the parliamentary vote for the Legislative Yuan was less predictable, leading to a presidential administration that lacks a parliamentary majority for the first time in many years. But ultimately, the election’s impact on cross-Strait relations Sino-American relations remains to be seen.

America’s actions that are directly detrimental to China’s interests render China’s cooperation in some regions irrelevant. The good news is that China and the U.S. have agreed to strengthen cooperation. But to ensure concrete results, the U.S. needs to do more.

The EU must strike a balance on its Taiwan policy, akin to other major powers, and have a comprehensive strategy. As the U.S. elections approach, which will have significant geopolitical implications for the self-governed island, Europe, a potential pivotal player, must carefully consider moves to uphold credibility on the global stage and maintain a coherent and principled foreign policy.