The Phillipines geographic location has long made it a close trading partner to China, but a colonial history with the U.S. has left strong bonds with its century-old ally to this day. Now, as China and the U.S. talk themselves into more hostile territory, how the Philippines will navigate two of its most consequential relationships will be crucial to surviving any sort of escalation.

Recently Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi revealed China’s vision during the annual UN General Assembly. His positive words come at a time filled with pessimism around the globe, with the West attempting to damage China’s standing.

Taiwan and Ukraine have drawn many comparisons this year due to the perceived similarities in their precarious security situations. In the wake of the crisis in Ukraine, countries are watching situations like the one in the Taiwan Strait closely.

With the possible passage of the Taiwan Policy Act of 2002, the United States is showing that, notwithstanding lip service, it is moving in a direction of open support for the island. China must prepare for the worst-case scenario.

The US Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs just endorsed the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 by 17-5. The legislation will then be submitted to the Senate for review. If the House also proposes and approves a corresponding legislation later, President Biden may sign it into law. Even if the Act won’t sail through Congress, corresponding clauses may still be incorporated into such legislations as the National Defense Authorization Act and put into practice.

While the Taiwan Policy Act is making its way through the labyrinth in the congressional process in Washington, D.C., it is high time to ponder the consequences of this Act, if adopted and enacted, for China and the United States.

Their positions vary in some details, but the overall thrust is consistent: ASEAN wants peace and prosperity and supports the “one-China” principle. Members have been cautious not to choose sides in a major power rivalry because they see value in both.

The two allies will feel the urge to escalate their positions on Taiwan as a way of testing each other’s loyalty. But intervention in the Taiwan Strait will leave the island in a state of strategic stagnation and will cause unnecessary regional turmoil.

The visit to Taiwan by the U.S. House speaker is a straight-up violation of the one-China principle. It requires no stretch of imagination to see that security and stability will be dangerously degraded if the United States fails to reflect.

The negative influences of the U.S. House speaker’s Taiwan visit are fermenting and will continue to poison China-U.S. relations. Domestic political winds in the United States are stirring up strategic confusion that will inevitably increase the risk of war.