For most observers of the unfolding trade war between the U.S. and China, the casus belli is the convergence of China’s unfair trade practices with U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist credo. But this reading misses a critical development: the demise of America’s decades-long policy of engagement with China.

The relationship is now one of competition and change.

While China may not have the power to bring North Korea and the United States together for talks, Beijing’s role in a lasting peace agreement cannot be understated. If President Trump is not attentive to China’s priorities on the Korean Peninsula, he will not get far with the North Korean regime in negotiations.

Mahathir’s election victory in Malaysia is likely to signal a shift in the country’s foreign policy vis-à-vis China. Investment deals with China are likely to face greater scrutiny and Malaysia may become more assertive in South China Sea disputes.

Friction is inevitable, trade war is not.

Trump’s America First policy is breaking down traditional barriers between East and West but breaking up the Western camp held together by shared values.

With North Korea enjoying an improvement in its international environment, especially warming relations with China, it feels that the time has come to push back against the US.

Whilst Trump’s “America First” policy created the largest monthly budget surplus since 1968 (at $214 billion) in April this year and cut unemployment to below 4% for the first time since 2000, US credibility may have been permanently hurt.

There is no direct geostrategic competition between China and the United States.

Cancelling the summit makes the US look unreasonable and gives the initiative to China.