In The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War, historian Nicholas Mulder reminds us that even when Britain and Russia were savagely battling each other during the 1853-56 Crimean War, they continued to service their debts to each other. Likewise, when hedge funds launched predatory attacks on Asian currencies during the 1990s Asian financial crisis, they ultimately still played by the rules (even though their unethical behavior brought some East Asian countries’ economic progress to a halt).

Vietnam and India still have a long way to go to compete with China. Control of the pandemic, selective resumption of production and continued strengthening of its supply chains globally will keep China on top for some time.

Economic globalization — with more participants — is in Europe’s interest. Following the lead of the United States and kicking Russia and its allies out of the international system will only cause global fragmentation.

The ongoing Ukraine conflict may be the turning point that observers and politicos alike speak of to shift the focus of global leadership away from American hegemony, and towards a multipolar paradigm.

The U.S. is currently attempting to lump China with Russia, but the conflict in Ukraine is not likely to change America’s competitive strategy toward China in the long run. The U.S. will continue to focus on the Indo-Pacific region.

I strongly believe it is time for the trade war between the U.S. and China to be placed in abeyance. With inflation increasing in the U.S. and with the growth of China’s domestic consumption slowing, I am sure the will must be there on both sides.

What should be China’s view? It should avoid competition for its own sake and avoid rhetorical pitfalls. It should also consider historical context and the needs of humanity as a whole. Competition should be managed, not malicious.

The year 2022 will mark 50 years since US President Richard Nixon traveled to China to meet with Communist Party of China Chairman Mao Zedong and Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai – a major step toward restoring relations after decades of estrangement and hostility. A half-century later, the progress they launched has been all but lost, and US President Joe Biden is partly to blame.

During the Cold War, Europe was America’s strategic priority. East Asia was largely a sideshow, even though the United States fought bloody wars in Korea and Vietnam, and also provided security for Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Strategic competition between China and the United States should be characterized not as a new cold war but as an uneasy peace. Shooting is not likely to break out, but the two countries will remain in dread of each other in the coming decade.