Li Yan, Deputy Director of Institute of American Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations
Jan 10, 2025
A resurgence of right-wing populism will feature prominently in Trump 2.0. And the rise of “effective accelerationism” espoused by tech elites will interact with it, ushering in more uncertainty. How these factors interact will likely determine the U.S. growth trajectory in the years ahead.
Fan Gaoyue, Guest Professor at Sichuan University, Former Chief Specialist at PLA Academy of Military Science
Jan 10, 2025
The most prominent characteristic of the incoming U.S. president is uncertainty. China, especially, must drop all illusions and prepare to compete so that it can sit tight in the fishing boat and steer it to safety. The wind and waves are likely to rise under a more experienced — and possibly less restrained — American chief executive.
Warwick Powell, Adjunct Professor at Queensland University of Technology, Senior Fellow at Beijing Taihe Institute
Jan 07, 2025
The incoming U.S. president must move quickly to avoid being ensnared in the Ukraine debacle, with Russia winning the ground war. For Trump to get a prompt, positive reaction from Vladimir Putin, he needs to throw Europe under the bus and move on. Otherwise, the ultimate defeat won’t just be NATO’s. It will also be Trump’s.
Joseph S. Nye, Professor, Harvard University
Dec 27, 2024
Prediction is always difficult, but doubly so in the case of the US president-elect. Donald Trump not only speaks loosely and changes his positions often; he al
Chen Jimin, Guest Researcher, Center for Peace and Development Studies, China Association for International Friendly Contact
Dec 24, 2024
Despite his unpredictability, Donald Trump seems committed to the current strategic trajectory. But China has gained a deeper understanding and accumulated significant experience. It will likely approach America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy with greater confidence and composure in Trump’s second term.
Ted Galen Carpenter, Senior Fellow, Randolph Bourne Institute
Dec 20, 2024
Former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s call for the U.S. to prioritize aid to Ukraine over Taiwan drew scrutiny, especially given rising cross-Strait tensions. While Tsai’s stance may momentarily shift Trump’s administration's attention in East Asia, it risks undermining his likely focus on ending the costly Ukraine conflict and confronting China more aggressively, with Taiwan as a key flashpoint.
Zhou Xiaoming, Former Deputy Permanent Representative of China’s Mission to the UN Office in Geneva
Dec 13, 2024
BRICS countries, with a combined GDP approximately 1.5 times that of the United States, can be expected to retaliate against promised U.S. tariffs. These countries — many of which are major traders with China — are likely to make Donald Trump regret his bellicose bullying.
Ted Galen Carpenter, Senior Fellow, Randolph Bourne Institute
Nov 08, 2024
It’s likely that Washington’s sterile China policy will persist regardless of which candidate wins the U.S. presidential elections, a situation that could be detrimental for the entire global community.
Zhang Wenzong, Associate Research Fellow, CICIR
Sep 27, 2024
It’s unlikely that conservatism will regain the influence it once had — during the Reagan era, for example. A pivotal issue is whether traditional mainstream conservatism could merge with populist conservatism and national conservatism, and then make a comeback.
Zhang Wenzong, Associate Research Fellow, CICIR
Sep 11, 2024
In the run-up to the 2024 election, we can see how domestic politics bring changes to U.S. foreign policy. Interest groups in crucial swing states will play an outsize role in U.S. policy formulation, and their influence will extend beyond their actual voting power.