Escalating conflicts are not a winning proposition for the U.S. and China, and signs from recent interactions between the two may indicate that leaders on both sides want to steer the relationship toward a more stable scenario.

Headlines would suggest a U.S.-China confrontation is imminent, but a close examination of the economic relations between the two nations and the material reality of trade reveal that instigating a conflict would be a proverbial shot in the foot for either side.

The importance of China-U.S. relations goes far beyond the two countries. Their relationship influences no only their own people but also sets an example for others. They need to step up to the task.

Over several decades, the U.S. has emphasized crisis management with China, mostly for tactical reasons. Now, the Biden administration’s emphasis is clearly strategic. The U.S. wants to be in a position to constrain China’s policy options, while tilting the playing field toward its own interests.

Dialogue is always better than confrontation. The Zurich talks may lead to a virtual presidential meeting and more frequent strategic discussion between the two countries to gradually change the negative narrative of competition. A solid foundation must be built one step at a time, and each opportunity seized.

Recent high-level talks in Switzerland between China and the United States have laid a basis for continuing dialogue, leading to a joint agreement for Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping to hold a virtual summit before the year’s end.

As US President Joe Biden’s administration implements its strategy of great power competition with China, analysts seek historical metaphors to explain the deepening rivalry. But while many invoke the onset of the Cold War, a more worrisome historical metaphor is the start of World War I. In 1914, all the great powers expected a short third Balkan War. Instead, as the British historian Christopher Clark has shown, they sleepwalked into a conflagration that lasted four years, destroyed four empires, and killed millions.

One positive outcome is that the two presidents, Xi Jinping and Joe Biden, will hold a videoconference before the end of the year. But there have been a number of other good signs elsewhere as well. Bilateral ties have not continued deteriorating but are showing signs of a gradual thaw.

While the release of Meng Wanzhou to China and Michael Spavor and Michael Korvig to Canada gives cause to celebrate, the underlying reasons that led to their detainments must be analyzed.

As the United States redistributes resources in response to complex dynamics with regard to China, its approach is likely to be an evolutionary, full-spectrum endeavor that goes beyond the military alone. It’s a posture that will be difficult to maintain and one that could even create chaos.