This will be the tenth year that I have taught a course at Yale called “The Next China.” The course focuses on modern China’s daunting economic transitions. It frames the moving target that eludes US President Donald Trump’s administration, which is taking dead aim at the Old China (a convenient target for a leader who wants to resurrect Old America). The incoherence of Trump’s trade and economic policies, with all their potentially grave consequences for the global economy, is a destabilizing byproduct of this disconnect.

Trade talks between China and the United State have morphed beyond trade disputes, the solutions require the political will from the highest level. While working for a positive outcome, both parties should be prepared for a “no deal” scenario. The window of opportunities is closing.

Zhao Minghao, in an analysis of the most recent strategic moves made by the Trump administration regarding trade with China, declares that an escalation of the trade war will be detrimental to both nations, with a strong impact on the average American consumer with the potential for a quickly approaching recession. In pointing out that not only are Trump’s decisions made with strong American opposition but are also done so arbitrarily and counter to the judgements made by global organizations like the IMF, Zhao cautions that a trade deal is not the end goal — rather, Trump desires a decoupling of the two nations’ economies.

Over the next decade, new perspectives on sovereignty, human rights, and intellectual property will revise current legal norms. We are not in a ‘Cold War,’ but Beijing is courting US allies away from liberal democracy with investment, as globalization and its growing pains prove unpopular and spread populist politics across the globe.

Though many negative beliefs continue to circulate widely within the American media and the American government, Shen Yamei makes clear that these fallacies are unfounded by analyzing relevant literature, key moments in US history and American foreign policy strategy. She argues that, China will not bend to American narratives, and only when the US starts to realize it, can it begin to reverse course and decide to put its China policy back on the right track.

While China-U.S. relations remain moderate, they are also in a critical position to steer away from a full ideological conflict. In order to prevent another cold war, both sides must recall that cooperation is in both parties’ best interests.

The remaining gaps in the U.S.-China trade negotiations are harder to resolve because they reflect differing views on what is the ultimate game plan of the trade war.

The China-US reconciliation at the Osaka G20 Summit grants opportunities for a new trade deal to stabilize the global economy. However, if protectionism, populism, and international tensions go unchecked, the summit’s benefits are likely to be short-lived.

Recent behavior by the US suggests it is not as intent on reaching a “fair deal” so much as it is buying time. Even if a short term agreement is reached, it is increasingly clear that this trade dispute is a prelude to a longer struggle between a multipolar and unipolar world order.

Though Osaka provided a signal of some hope for future China-US negotiations, reality indicates that negotiators have several thorny issues to confront before reaching the light at the end of the tunnel: normalized trade relations.