A resurgence of right-wing populism will feature prominently in Trump 2.0. And the rise of “effective accelerationism” espoused by tech elites will interact with it, ushering in more uncertainty. How these factors interact will likely determine the U.S. growth trajectory in the years ahead.

The incoming U.S. president must move quickly to avoid being ensnared in the Ukraine debacle, with Russia winning the ground war. For Trump to get a prompt, positive reaction from Vladimir Putin, he needs to throw Europe under the bus and move on. Otherwise, the ultimate defeat won’t just be NATO’s. It will also be Trump’s.

During his first campaign for office, Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on China was dismissed by many as a rhetorical flourish, not serious policy. Today, his threat to impose a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods or revoking China’s most favored nation status must be regarded as credible and actionable.

Trump 2.0 is expected to be more mature than it was in Round 1. He will likely place greater emphasis on leadership and earning respect from other countries. If both sides commit to communication, managing differences and deepening cooperation, relations can find a new balance in a complex international environment.

Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese imports serve his nationalist base but ultimately act as a deceptive "shell game," shifting costs to American consumers and producers. While some industries may benefit short-term, the broader economy and middle-class Americans will ultimately bear the long-term consequences.

Despite his unpredictability, Donald Trump seems committed to the current strategic trajectory. But China has gained a deeper understanding and accumulated significant experience. It will likely approach America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy with greater confidence and composure in Trump’s second term.

"Reagan asked Gorbachev: If Martians attacked the United States, would you come to our defense? And Gorbachev said yes, and then asked Reagan: If Martians attacked the USSR, would you come to our defense? And President Reagan said yes."

Rick Waters is the managing director of Eurasia Group’s China practice. He previously served as the U.S. State Department’s inaugural director of the Office of China Coordination (China House) and as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia in the Biden administration. In a recent interview with James Chau of China-US Focus in Tokyo, Rick Waters addresses potential risks and possible cooperation between the U.S. and China.

America’s China policy, characterized by major-power competition, has had a subtle yet significant influence on the Taiwan question. The next U.S. administration, whether led by Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, is likely make changes. The devil will be in the details.

The Trump White House is likely to ignite another round of inflation in new trade and tech wars. And that could drive U.S.-China ties to the edge.