Will the United States fight for the island or forsake it? It’s a central question, as a series of statements by Washington hawks and moves in Congress edge toward confrontation. A protracted war is one possible outcome. Loss of U.S. credibility in the Asia-Pacific is another.

Among the mounting tensions in the US-China relationship, the Taiwan issue is the only issue that could turn the “war of words” into a true war.

The pandemic has deepened the waters in cross-Strait relations. As President Tsai takes office for her second term, US-China-Taiwan relations face new challenges.

Taiwan’s re-elected leader masked her Taiwan independence agenda with delicate words, but her meaning was unmistakable. She is moving inexorably toward a separation through incremental steps. Can a crisis be averted?

Tsai Ing-wen’s second inaugural message on May 20 was a dangerous one, reinforcing the notion that the island is already de facto independent and willing to be a geopolitical chess piece for the United States.

The United States is clearly trying to leverage the island to its advantage against Beijing. But the matter is so sensitive that it could trigger a confrontation. It has already eroded trust and reduced the space for effective crisis management.

The TAIPEI Act, passed by the U.S. Congress and signed into law by Donald Trump, will not benefit the island. Taiwan is being used as a pawn by the U.S. to gain leverage against Beijing.

The U.S. and Taiwan have engineered a number of in-cremental breakthroughs and are using the coronavirus epidemic to create another. These moves damage Chi-nese sovereignty and violate international law. It’s un-likely to end well.

History shows that when necessary, Washington will sacrifice Taiwan’s interests in order to achieve US foreign policy goals. Today, Taiwan might find itself as collateral damage in the US-China trade war.