Washington might believe that Russia’s poor performance in Ukraine will make China think twice about using force, or that China will be constrained by the CPC’s 20th National Congress. But this is a grave misunderstanding.

Three main problems must be addressed in advance to reduce risk: a possible accident arising from a military encounter, dangerous actions by the United States that touch China’s red lines and provocative rhetoric by members of the U.S. Congress.

China’s claims to Taiwan is one of Asia’s most enduring entanglements, involving the U.S. and many powerful regional neighbors. Is there any realistic scenario that allows for a peaceful coexistence?

The United States needs to stop undermining Chinese sovereignty. Plenty of reassuring words have appeared on paper over the past seven decades, but the U.S. has been two-faced. There is simply no reason for it to lean, secretly or openly, toward confrontation.

The China-Taiwan standoff has been a flashpoint for international tensions involving the U.S. for the better part of the last century. With Biden in the Oval Office and the U.S.’s escalating attention towards China, the latest developments in the space must be watched closely.

Perhaps America has underestimated China’s resolve, even as it blurs diplomatic and military lines. No one should underestimate the negative impact on peaceful reunification that further engagement between the U.S. and Taipei might have.

The Chinese government has so far adhered to its commitment to peaceful reunification with Taiwan. But a fundamental change in China’s stance, forced by a dangerously cavalier U.S. attitude, will make it hard to avoid a non-peaceful solution.

The collapse of Afghanistan’s government has caused a shift in the discourse about other U.S. defense commitments around the world. China has engaged in public saber-rattling when it comes to Taiwan, yet the situation is day and night in comparison.

Reassuring verbal messages from high levels in the United States government regarding China are nice to hear but are little more than public relations. American credibility is so poor that few believe such statements are sincere. Actions speak louder than words, and they tell a different story.

For a decade, the focus of the United States has shown a high degree of continuity, starting with George W. Bush and followed by Barack Obama, Donald Trump and now Joe Biden. But America is now paying greater attention to detail and adding new features to its geostrategic approach.