The U.S. secretary of state restated and reinforced the Biden administration’s approach, proposing an “invest, align, compete” strategy for success over China. The speech revealed significant clues about the features of America’s basic strategic game ahead.

The phrase “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow” has been heard frequently in Taiwan since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. But separatists on the island are not sure the United States would come to their rescue if Beijing moved toward reunification.

The crisis in Ukraine quickly led China-observers to draw comparisons to the similar provocations that exist in the Taiwan Strait regarding Taiwanese sovereignty and Beijing’s desire to take control of the island. The way Russia’s offensive is unfolding can lead to sobering takeaways for all sides party to Taiwan and China’s standoff.

Washington might believe that Russia’s poor performance in Ukraine will make China think twice about using force, or that China will be constrained by the CPC’s 20th National Congress. But this is a grave misunderstanding.

Three main problems must be addressed in advance to reduce risk: a possible accident arising from a military encounter, dangerous actions by the United States that touch China’s red lines and provocative rhetoric by members of the U.S. Congress.

China’s claims to Taiwan is one of Asia’s most enduring entanglements, involving the U.S. and many powerful regional neighbors. Is there any realistic scenario that allows for a peaceful coexistence?

The United States needs to stop undermining Chinese sovereignty. Plenty of reassuring words have appeared on paper over the past seven decades, but the U.S. has been two-faced. There is simply no reason for it to lean, secretly or openly, toward confrontation.

The China-Taiwan standoff has been a flashpoint for international tensions involving the U.S. for the better part of the last century. With Biden in the Oval Office and the U.S.’s escalating attention towards China, the latest developments in the space must be watched closely.

Perhaps America has underestimated China’s resolve, even as it blurs diplomatic and military lines. No one should underestimate the negative impact on peaceful reunification that further engagement between the U.S. and Taipei might have.

The Chinese government has so far adhered to its commitment to peaceful reunification with Taiwan. But a fundamental change in China’s stance, forced by a dangerously cavalier U.S. attitude, will make it hard to avoid a non-peaceful solution.