Extended deterrence by the U.S. and ROK, as well as the framing of security as a regional issue requiring alliances, illustrates the spread of NATO-style security thinking. From China’s perspective, this will result in a further imbalance in the region’s security order and requires resolute opposition.

No leader of a U.S. ally has ever made such a show of fidelity before a trip to Washington. Yoon swiftly patched up relations with Japan, announced military aid to Ukraine and made comments on Taiwan.

Weaponized interdependence, through which powerful states leverage their position in the global network to achieve strategic goals, is increasingly relevant in the U.S.-China relationship. The U.S. uses its market power and network of alliances to exclude adversaries from the global dollar-dominated system, but this approach has also accelerated the process of global multipolarity and created opportunities for other countries to create alternative ecosystems.

The shift of the US policy from engaging China to containing China can be traced back to the Obama administration and his pivot to Asia strategy in 2009.

The negative impact of what appears to be a new cold war in East Asia — even as the U.S. forcefully pushes for U.S.-Japan-ROK cooperation — should not be underestimated. There are obvious obstacles within the alliance that will make moving forward difficult.

As close neighbors, China and Japan must seriously explore ways to coexist peacefully. The only way to build a robust relationship, as Premier Li Qiang has said, is for both sides to focus on the long-term picture and build on positive elements.

Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, wants to unite the global South and hopes to play a bigger role in the international community. Lacking inclusiveness, however, its strategies and tactics may run aground.

Interstate political relations are changing the dynamics of the international system. China’s relationship with Russia has become a tool for balancing the shifting pres-sures. But no country can predict the consequences of war. Staying out of it may be the best way to maximize gains.

The United States has gained expanded military access in the Philippines, including the renewal of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) and potential joint patrols in the South China Sea, which has raised concerns from some Filipino lawmakers and questions about the country's independent foreign policy. Additionally, there are worries about the speed and transparency of the expansion, as well as its impact on domestic politics and foreign relations with China and beyond.

Relations between China and the Philippines have a direct bearing on stability in the South China Sea and peace in the wider Asia-Pacific region. Like waves in the sea itself, the situation fluctuates. But sensible leaders and a clear outline for settling disputes can prevent a breakdown.