Relations between China and the Philippines have a direct bearing on stability in the South China Sea and peace in the wider Asia-Pacific region. Like waves in the sea itself, the situation fluctuates. But sensible leaders and a clear outline for settling disputes can prevent a breakdown.

Hosting Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. was the opening act for China’s diplomatic efforts this 2023. As the Lunar New Year dawns, it is worth reflecting on what the visit meant for both countries.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s visit to China set the tone for stronger Philippine-China relations in the upcoming years. However, the future of this bilateral relationship might encounter tensions in the face of developments in the Philippine-U.S. relationship and defense cooperation.

Australia’s alignment to the West and its trade barriers with China has entrenched tensions between the two Asian countries.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s visit to Beijing may help set the tone for cordial bilateral ties with China, but could also stir wariness on the part of the country’s longstanding treaty ally, the United States. The Philippines must carefully navigate its position to avoid being seen as favoring either side.

The occupation of Ukraine by hostile Russian forces was one of the primary global focuses last year. The great powers entangled in the conflict touch almost every region of the international community and have pushed Russia and China closer together.

A approach to regional security that’s heavily based on deterrence will only lead to more insecure outcomes. Military strength is an important component, but it should not be pursued to the virtual exclusion of diplomacy. Regional consensus is essential.

Geopolitical tensions unleashed by the war in Ukraine continue to influence Sino-American relations and the reshaping of state relationships in Southeast Asia.

Will the Asia-Pacific chart a course forward? Or will it return to the status quo of the Cold War? Mentality matters, and the old thinking inevitably leads to misjudgments. The U.S. sees China through the same prism it once saw the Soviet Union but neglects the fundamental differences of two hugely different ages.

The region has maintained overall security and stability for more than 40 years, largely because of the strategic rationality and sobriety of governments in the neighborhood. Major powers that want to interfere should take note.