At the beginning of the new year, China-US Focus interviewed Professor Wang Jisi of Peking University’s School of International Studies and founding president of the university’s Institute of International and Strategic Studies, about the potential scenarios of China-U.S. relations over the next four years.

A resurgence of right-wing populism will feature prominently in Trump 2.0. And the rise of “effective accelerationism” espoused by tech elites will interact with it, ushering in more uncertainty. How these factors interact will likely determine the U.S. growth trajectory in the years ahead.

The most prominent characteristic of the incoming U.S. president is uncertainty. China, especially, must drop all illusions and prepare to compete so that it can sit tight in the fishing boat and steer it to safety. The wind and waves are likely to rise under a more experienced — and possibly less restrained — American chief executive.

The incoming U.S. president must move quickly to avoid being ensnared in the Ukraine debacle, with Russia winning the ground war. For Trump to get a prompt, positive reaction from Vladimir Putin, he needs to throw Europe under the bus and move on. Otherwise, the ultimate defeat won’t just be NATO’s. It will also be Trump’s.

During his first campaign for office, Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on China was dismissed by many as a rhetorical flourish, not serious policy. Today, his threat to impose a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods or revoking China’s most favored nation status must be regarded as credible and actionable.

The two major powers should go beyond their differences and work together to advance global industry and offer even greater joint contributions — finding new ways to secure a peaceful, mutually beneficial relationship.

Prediction is always difficult, but doubly so in the case of the US president-elect. Donald Trump not only speaks loosely and changes his positions often; he al

America’s best-laid plans to change China have clearly failed over the decades. The question now is whether Donald Trump can rise above that history and meet China on its own terms. If not, the incoming occupant of the White House will sadly preside another failed episode of fruitless U.S. ambitions to conquer China.

The election of Donald Trump to a second term signals that the United States will temporarily step back from the next wave of globalization. As a consequence, Japan’s future security will lie in its deep integration into the processes of globalization and regional integration. This raises an opportunity for improving China-Japan relations.

The Trump White House is likely to ignite another round of inflation in new trade and tech wars. And that could drive U.S.-China ties to the edge.